Match Info

Date: 11 April 2021, Sunday


	Perugia		Triestina

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.1
	2	2.95	3.75
	2.3	2.75	3.2
	2.07	2.85	3.5
	2.25	3.11	3.46
	2.1	2.9	3.8
	2.14	2.97	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.73)	2.95 ↓ (3.3)	3.49 ↓ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
42.5%

Draw
31.1%

Triestina
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

27.3%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

21.9%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Perugia's form might have worsened.

Triestina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Triestina's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+22.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perugia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Triestina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Perugia - Triestina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion to Serie C to Promotion to Play Offs and 5 in the zone Promotion to Serie C to Promotion to Play Offs).

Perugia is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Triestina is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Triestina could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Perugia have a series of guest games.

Perugia will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
03.04.21	Virtus Verona - Perugia	0:3 ✺
30.03.21	Fermana - Perugia	1:1 ✺
27.03.21	Imolese - Perugia	0:1 ✺
21.03.21	Perugia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
17.03.21	Gubbio - Perugia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWWL
- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group B
07.04.21	Sambenedettese - Triestina	1:0 ✺
03.04.21	Triestina - Padova	1:0 ✺
21.03.21	Triestina - Carpi	1:0 ✺
16.03.21	Fermana - Triestina	2:2 ✺
13.03.21	Triestina - FeralpiSalò	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
19.12.20	Triestina - Perugia	2:1
Coppa Italia
11.08.19	Perugia - Triestina	1:0

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