Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 36

Date: 13 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Nereo Rocco (Trieste)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251


	Triestina		Padova

	1	X	2
	3.1	3	2.1
	3.35	3.1	2.19
	3.46	3.12	2.2	Watch
	3.3	3	2.15
	3.39	3.06	2.1	Watch
	3.35	3.1	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.8)	3.06 ↓ (3.17)	2.16 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Triestina
27.6%

Draw
29.9%

Padova
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

29%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.9%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Triestina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Triestina's form might have worsened.

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Triestina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Triestina - Padova Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Padova (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roos K. (G) 17. Jonsson K. 19. Silvestri T. 5. Frare D. 21. Tonetto M. 16. Fiordilino L. 15. Correia O. (C) 7. Ionita A. 77. Cortinovis A. 9. Vertainen E. 99. Olivieri M.	1. Fortin M. (G) 4. Belli F. 2. Delli Carri F. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 15. Bianchi N. (C) 8. Fusi P. 14. Villa L. 7. Varas K. 92. Buonaiuto C. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
44. Bianconi A. 3. Bijleveld T. 10. D'Urso C. 46. Embalo Sambu B. 73. Kosijer S. 39. Malusa J. (G) 30. Mastrantonio D. (G) 13. Strizzolo L. 27. Udoh K. 42. Voca I.	11. Cretella C. 72. Faedo C. 30. Favale G. 23. Granata A. 26. Kirwan N. 31. Pirrello R. 10. Russini S. 16. Sala A. (G) 9. Spagnoli A. 77. Tumiatti F. 12. Voltan M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Bortolussi M. ⚽,
40', Bortolussi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Fiordilino L. 🟨,
50', Delli Carri F. 🟨,
56', Cortinovis A. ↓, Strizzolo L. ↑,
56', Fiordilino L. ↓, D'Urso C. ↑,
64', Vertainen E. ↓, Udoh K. ↑,
67', Fortin M. 🟨,
76', Strizzolo L. 🟨,
77', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Liguori M. ↑,
77', Bianchi N. ↓, Cretella C. ↑,
83', Tonetto M. ↓, Bijleveld T. ↑,
83', Correia O. ↓, Voca I. ↑,
86', Bortolussi M. ↓, Spagnoli A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Triestina won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Padova could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Padova will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Triestina: Bianay Balcot C. (Coach's decision) Cancellieri D. (Inactive) Germano U. (Inactive)

There will not play in Padova: Crisetig L. (Yellow Cards)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Triestina won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 9:19 (average 0.7:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Triestina won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:5 (average 0.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group A
06.04.25	Renate - Triestina	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Triestina - FeralpiSalò	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Giana Erminio - Triestina	3:0 ✺
16.03.25	Triestina - Pro Patria	1:0 ✺
13.03.25	AlbinoLeffe - Triestina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWL
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie C Group A
07.04.25	Padova - Lecco	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Atalanta U23 - Padova	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Novara - Padova	2:1 ✺
17.03.25	Padova - Pergolettese	2:1 ✺
13.03.25	Renate - Padova	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
01.12.24	Padova - Triestina	1:1
28.04.24	Padova - Triestina	3:2
22.12.23	Triestina - Padova	0:1
18.02.23	Padova - Triestina	1:1
19.10.22	Triestina - Padova	0:2
23.01.22	Triestina - Padova	0:2
19.09.21	Padova - Triestina	2:0

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