Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
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Canada	beIN Connect
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Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3.2	4.2
	1.9	3.3	4.3	Watch
	1.97	3.33	4.46
	1.93	3.32	4.36	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4
	1.93	3.39	4.41	Watch
	1.9	3.3	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.72)	3.31 ↓ (3.4)	4.28 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
49.4%

Draw
28.5%

Olimpia Asuncion
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

27.3%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

26.4%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Olimpia (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Peñarol (2.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Olimpia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Amores G. (G) 20. Milans P. 34. Herrera N. 2. Leo Coelho 15. Olivera M. (C) 6. Perez R. 32. Umpierrez L. 10. Fernandez L. 5. Sosa I. 28. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.	1. Olveira G. (C) 22. Rojas R. 2. Lopez L. 15. Alfonzo A. 17. Gomez M. 8. Franco Zayas A. F. 18. Dominguez J. 36. Zabala F. 11. Redes R. 29. Leguizamon I. 9. Benedetto D.
Substitutes
7. Cabrera J. 25. Campana M. (G) 80. David Terans 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 27. Lucas Hernandez 77. Machado A. 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 29. Remedi E. 4. Rodriguez J. 21. Silva G. 8. Villalba H.	39. Abreu L. 5. Barreto Viera O. J. 30. Benitez Sanchez H. 23. Espinola A. 7. Fernandez H. 32. Lopez E. 26. Maciel A. R. 38. Montiel A. 33. Morinigo A. 16. Paredes A. 19. Pratto L. 13. Verza Martinez L. A. (G)
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Bustos F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Lopez L. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Leguizamon I. ⚽, Zabala F. (A),
44', Zabala F. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Perez R. ↓, Remedi E. ↑,
46', Umpierrez L. ↓, Cabrera J. ↑,
50', 1 - 2, Fernandez L. ⚽, Cabrera J. (A),
55', 2 - 2, Olivera M. ⚽, Fernandez L. (A),
58', Leguizamon I. ↓, Abreu L. ↑,
66', Abreu L. 🟨,
69', Baez J. ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
71', Franco Zayas A. F. ↓, Pratto L. ↑,
71', Benedetto D. ↓, Fernandez H. ↑,
73', 3 - 2, Remedi E. ⚽, Garcia Cardozo D. G. (A),
77', Redes R. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
77', Gomez M. ↓, Benitez Sanchez H. ↑,
79', Fernandez H. 🟨,
81', Silvera M. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
88', Sosa I. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
90', Mendez J. 🟨,

Preview

Peñarol is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Olimpia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of away games.

In this match, Peñarol is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Peñarol: Avenatti F. (Muscle Injury) Darias E. (Knee Injury) Olase T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Olimpia: Barreto Viera O. J. (Inactive) Franco Zayas A. F. (Injury) Gonzalez D. (Yellow Cards) Ortiz R. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Olimpia: Olmedo C. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 54.06%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	Abandoned ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WW?TW
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.25	Olimpia Asuncion - General Caballero JLM	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.25	Vélez Sársfield - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
28.04.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0
04.05.22	Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0
12.04.22	Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1
Club Friendly
22.01.14	Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1

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