Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2, Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	ESPN 2, ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Vélez Sársfield		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	5.75	Watch
	1.71	3.6	4.8
	1.7	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.74	3.48	5.93
	1.71	3.43	5.8
	1.75	3.3	4.8
	1.71	3.48	5.87	Watch
	1.7	3.4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.67)	3.44 ↓ (3.65)	5.49 ↑ (5.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
55.2%

Draw
27.6%

Olimpia Asuncion
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

25.9%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

25.9%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Olimpia Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Vélez Sársfield - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Olimpia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vélez Sársfield will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 21. Gordon J. 2. Mammana E. 31. Gomez V. 3. Gomez E. 32. Ordonez C. 5. Baeza C. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 28. Carrizo M. 9. Braian Romero 20. Pizzini F.	1. Olveira G. (G) 15. Alfonzo A. 2. Lopez L. 22. Rojas R. 21. Olmedo C. 18. Dominguez J. 6. Ortiz R. (C) 36. Zabala F. 11. Redes R. 30. Benitez Sanchez H. 29. Leguizamon I.
Substitutes
37. Cavanagh T. 34. Fernandez D. 8. Galvan T. 42. Garzon L. (G) 39. Machuca I. 10. Montoro A. 11. Pellegrini M. 6. Quiros A. 19. Roldan L. 7. Santos M. 40. Silvero T. 33. Vazquez K. A.	39. Abreu L. 3. Benitez H. 23. Espinola A. 7. Fernandez H. 17. Gomez M. 10. Gonzalez D. 32. Lopez E. 26. Maciel A. R. 38. Montiel A. 16. Paredes A. 19. Pratto L. 13. Verza Martinez L. A. (G)
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Bustos F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Ortiz R. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Carrizo M. ⚽, Pizzini F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Olmedo C. ↓, Abreu L. ↑,
65', Gordon J. 🟨,
68', Pizzini F. ↓, Pellegrini M. ↑,
69', Redes R. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
69', Benitez Sanchez H. ↓, Pratto L. ↑,
72', Ordonez C. ↓, Vazquez K. A. ↑,
73', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
80', Gordon J. ↓, Silvero T. ↑,
80', Carrizo M. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
85', Leguizamon I. ↓, Fernandez H. ↑,
85', Dominguez J. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
85', Montoro A. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Fernandez H. ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Olimpia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Vélez is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Vélez: Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Porcel M. (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vélez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.05.25	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	4:1 ✺
28.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Vélez Sársfield	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.25	Talleres de Córdoba - Vélez Sársfield	0:1 ✺
14.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Sarmiento de Junín	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWL
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
28.04.25	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Atlético Tembetary - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Vélez Sársfield	0:4

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