Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Referee: Cianni J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Racing Montevideo		Cerro

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4
	1.85	3.15	4.25
	1.87	3	4
	1.91	3.06	4.69	Watch
	1.75	3	4.33
	1.85	3.24	4.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.97)	3.11 ↓ (3.24)	4.29 ↑ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
49.3%

Draw
29.4%

Cerro
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

28.8%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

28.1%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Racing Montevideo - Cerro Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Racing Montevideo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Varese F. (G) 4. Cotugno G. (C) 2. Parada F. 29. Gonzalez F. 37. Oyarzo Y. 14. De Los Santos E. 5. Bosca J. 8. Cairus F. 40. Atum A. 16. Da Silva E. 18. Habib T.	25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 22. Suarez D. 16. Guasone J. 3. Lima A. 17. Rodriguez G. 32. Mederos R. 5. Macelli A. (C) 35. Nongoy P. 27. Barros C. 29. Paiva S. 14. Soria N.
Substitutes
13. Alvarez F. 21. Alvarez Wallace A. 15. Cheuquepal D. 19. Dudok R. 1. Machado F. (G) 81. Manzur I. 23. Sosa N. 11. Suarez F. 77. Tomatis B. 39. Vazquez A.	10. Aleman B. 31. Amaro J. 4. Arguello M. 20. Butti F. 40. Capdevila D. (G) 8. Miranda A. 9. Morales B. 33. Rijo T. 18. Sena N. 7. Severo A.
Coaches
Chambian C.	Abeijon N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Mederos R. 🟨,
31', Barros C. 🟨,
39', Paiva S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nongoy P. ↓, Amaro J. ↑,
46', Mederos R. ↓, Rijo T. ↑,
46', Atum A. ↓, Vazquez A. ↑,
52', Bosca J. 🟨,
55', Bosca J. ↓, Sosa N. ↑,
55', De Los Santos E. ↓, Alvarez Wallace A. ↑,
64', Amaro J. 🟨,
66', Parada F. 🟨,
70', Paiva S. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
73', Da Silva E. ↓, Dudok R. ↑,
74', Suarez D. ↓, Arguello M. ↑,
80', Vazquez A. 🟨,
81', Cairus F. ↓, Tomatis B. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Tomatis B. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 2.

Recent performances by Racing have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cerro is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Racing may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Racing is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Racing won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Racing won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.7:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	9	4	2	3	9:11	-2	14
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Albion Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	Racing Montevideo - Danubio	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Nacional Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Racing Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWWTL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.02.26	Cerro - Boston River	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Cerro - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
16.02.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro	3:0 ✺
09.02.26	Cerro - Danubio	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
14.01.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
14.01.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.08.25	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:2
08.02.25	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	0:1
20.10.24	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:1
19.04.24	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:1
07.12.23	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	0:1
25.06.23	Cerro - Racing Montevideo	1:2

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