Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 26 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Roberto (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Racing Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.3	5.75	Watch
	1.7	3.35	4.85
	1.72	3.75	5.15
	1.83	3.13	4.93	Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.8
	1.69	3.57	5.03	Watch
	1.92	3.3	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.92)	3.4 ↑ (3.3)	4.9 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing Montevideo
53.6%

Draw
27.4%

Progreso
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

27.9%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

26.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Racing Montevideo's performance.

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Progreso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Racing Montevideo - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: Racing Montevideo will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Varese F. (G) 4. Cotugno G. (C) 3. Brazionis 13. Alvarez F. 37. Oyarzo Y. 19. Dudok R. 8. Cairus F. 21. Alvarez Wallace A. 39. Vazquez A. 18. Habib T. 77. Tomatis B.	1. Mehring A. (G) 3. Garcia F. 4. Paolini M. 13. Carroso H. 15. Martin M. 8. Colombino A. (C) 5. Pinheiro A. 21. Rivero J. 22. Paz A. 40. Cougo A. 23. Copelotti M.
Substitutes
16. Da Silva E. 26. Da Silva S. 14. De Los Santos E. 17. Ferreira M. 29. Gonzalez F. 1. Machado F. (G) 81. Manzur I. 24. Perez J. 23. Sosa N. 11. Suarez F.	2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 17. De Leon F. 29. Fernandez N. 14. Kidd F. 10. Lemmo I. 11. Lopez N. 33. Requena A. (G) 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G. 24. Viera S.
Coaches
Chambian C.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Dudok R. ⚽,
24', Vazquez A. ↓, De Los Santos E. ↑,
29', Brazionis 🟨,
30', Rivero J. 🟨,
34', Tomatis B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Paolini M. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
46', Rivero J. ↓, De Leon F. ↑,
46', Oyarzo Y. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
49', Cotugno G. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, De Leon F. ⚽,
55', Cotugno G. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
55', Tomatis B. ↓, Da Silva S. ↑,
60', Paz A. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
61', Gonzalez F. 🟨,
63', Garcia F. 🟨,
69', Mehring A. 🟨,
71', Copelotti M. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
74', Martin M. 🟨,
76', Habib T. 🟨,
79', Habib T. ↓, Da Silva E. ↑,
82', Pinheiro A. 🟥,
88', Lopez N. ↓, Cardozo Coitinho S. ↑,
90', Fernandez N. 🟨,
90+7', Cougo A. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 3.

Racing is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Progreso has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Racing is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Racing will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Racing won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:13. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Racing won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:1. (average 1.9:0.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Albion Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWLW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.26	Progreso - Boston River	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Cerro - Progreso	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Progreso - Albion Montevideo	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
29.09.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	0:0
22.06.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	3:0
30.03.25	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	0:1
21.09.24	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:0
07.07.24	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	3:2
10.03.24	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	4:3
Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.08.22	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	2:1

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