Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+ app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.25	3	3.5	Watch
	2.27	3.1	3.71
	2.27	3.06	3.54
	2.15	2.9	3.5	Watch
	2.28	3.1	3.57	Watch
	2.25	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.05)	3.02 ↓ (3.4)	3.55 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
42.2%

Draw
31.3%

Vélez Sársfield
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

27.8%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Vélez will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Peñarol (1.54) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Peñarol (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Peñarol de Montevideo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Vélez (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Amores G. (G) 22. Suarez D. 34. Herrera N. 2. Leo Coelho 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Sosa I. 29. Remedi E. 7. Cabrera J. 10. Fernandez L. 32. Umpierrez L. 11. Silvera M.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 21. Gordon J. 34. Fernandez D. 6. Quiros A. 3. Gomez E. 8. Galvan T. 5. Baeza C. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 28. Carrizo M. 9. Braian Romero 20. Pizzini F.
Substitutes
9. Avenatti F. 25. Campana M. (G) 80. David Terans 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 27. Lucas Hernandez 77. Machado A. 18. Mayada C. 23. Mendez J. 6. Perez R. 4. Rodriguez J. 21. Silva G. 8. Villalba H.	43. Andrada I. 50. Andrada T. 30. Cabral R. 18. Fernandez M. 42. Garzon L. (G) 15. Godoy D. 39. Machuca I. 12. Rodriguez R. (G) 19. Roldan L. 40. Silvero T. 33. Vazquez K. A.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Leo Coelho 🟨,
33', Galvan T. 🟨,
45+3', Bouzat A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Umpierrez L. ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
73', Sosa I. ↓, Villalba H. ↑,
73', Olivera M. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
79', Baeza C. ↓, Roldan L. ↑,
80', Galvan T. ↓, Cabral R. ↑,
83', Silvera M. ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
83', Suarez D. ↓, David Terans ↑,
90', Pizzini F. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,

Preview

Peñarol is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Vélez is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 0.

Peñarol has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Vélez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Peñarol could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Peñarol: Avenatti F. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Braian Romero (Muscle Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Lagos A. (Knee Injury) Monzon F. (Knee Injury) Porcel M. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion	3:2 ✺
06.05.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWW
- Vélez Sársfield
Copa Argentina
21.05.25	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Vélez Sársfield - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	3:0 ✺
08.05.25	Vélez Sársfield - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.05.25	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	4:1 ✺
28.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1
Copa Sudamericana
04.11.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
28.10.20	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0
Copa Libertadores
12.03.13	Vélez Sársfield - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:1
26.02.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
Club Friendly
13.01.13	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	1:3

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