Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Subaru Park (Chester, PA)


	Philadelphia Union		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.25	6.5	Watch
	1.33	4.75	7	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7.2
	1.34	4.82	8.05
	1.38	4.8	7.7	Watch
	1.33	4.6	7.5
	1.34	5.1	8.25	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.47)	4.87 ↑ (4.14)	7.43 ↑ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philadelphia Union
68.5%

Draw
19%

Indy Eleven
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

22%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

21.5%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philadelphia Union has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Philadelphia Union's performance.

Indy Eleven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Philadelphia Union that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Philadelphia Union - Indy Eleven Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
76. Rick A. (G) 20. Damiani B. 5. Glesnes J. 29. Makhanya O. 15. Mbaizo O. 22. Vazquez D. 8. Bueno J. 14. Rafanello J. 11. Bedoya A. (C) 6. Sullivan C. 7. Uhre M.	23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 33. White H. 30. Ofeimu B. 41. Musa J. 16. Stanley A. 5. Murphy J. 14. Quinn A. 99. Foster M. 8. Blake J. 27. Rendon B. 22. Amoh E.
Substitutes
9. Baribo T. 26. Harriel N. 4. Lukic J. 1. Semmle O. (G) 19. Vassilev I. 27. Wagner K. 39. Westfield F.	18. Collier E. 3. Hogan P. 19. Kizza E. 6. Lindley C. 2. O'Brien J. 98. Sulte H. (G) 9. Williams R.
Coaches
Carnell B.	McAuley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Bedoya A. ⚽, Mbaizo O. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Glesnes J. ↓, Harriel N. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Amoh E. ⚽, Foster M. (A),
55', Vazquez D. 🟨,
57', Damiani B. ↓, Baribo T. ↑,
57', Bueno J. ↓, Lukic J. ↑,
57', Vazquez D. ↓, Wagner K. ↑,
69', Murphy J. 🟨,
73', Amoh E. ↓, Williams R. ↑,
73', Foster M. ↓, Collier E. ↑,
81', Mbaizo O. ↓, Vassilev I. ↑,
88', Makhanya O. 🟨,
90+1', Ofeimu B. 🟨,
90+2', Stanley A. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
91', Rendon B. ↓, O'Brien J. ↑,
91', Murphy J. ↓, Lindley C. ↑,
91', Uhre M. ↓, Westfield F. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Williams R. (Pen),
1, Vassilev I. (Pen),
2, Blake J. (Pen),
2, Baribo T. (Pen),
3, Quinn A. (Pen),
3, Westfield F. (Pen),
4, Lindley C. (Pen),
4, Rafanello J. (Pen),
5, Stanley A. (Pen),
5, Lukic J. (Pen),

Preview

Philadelphia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Indy's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Indy has had a series of home games.

In this match, Philadelphia is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philadelphia Union
MLS
03.05.25	CF Montréal - Philadelphia Union	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Philadelphia Union - DC United	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United	3:0 ✺
12.04.25	New York City - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Philadelphia Union - Orlando City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWLT
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
03.05.25	Indy Eleven - Detroit City	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Forward Madison - Indy Eleven	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Indy Eleven - Charleston Battery	1:3 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Indy Eleven - Miami	1:0 ET ✺
USL Championship
05.04.25	Indy Eleven - North Carolina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWLWT

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