Match Info

MLS

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Subaru Park (Chester, PA)

Referee: Penso T. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Philadelphia Union		Toronto FC

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	8	Watch
	1.46	4.4	6.25
	1.34	5.4	8.8	Watch
	1.36	5.37	8.92
	1.38	4.90	7.52	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6
	1.35	5.36	8.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.45)	4.97 ↑ (4.56)	7.74 ↑ (6.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philadelphia Union
68.7%

Draw
19.1%

Toronto FC
12.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

20.8%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.8%

20.3%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philadelphia Union has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Philadelphia (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Toronto (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Philadelphia (votes: 1 - 20%). Toronto (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Blake A. (G) 26. Harriel N. 29. Makhanya O. 5. Glesnes J. 27. Wagner K. 33. Sullivan Q. 21. Jean Jacques D. 8. Bueno J. 19. Vassilev I. 20. Damiani B. 9. Baribo T.	90. Gavran L. (G) 22. Laryea R. 5. Long K. 17. Rosted S. 28. Petretta R. 14. Coello A. 21. Osorio J. 20. Flores D. 7. Corbeanu T. 9. Brynhildsen O. 10. Mihailovic D.
Substitutes
11. Bedoya A. 32. Iloski M. 4. Lukic J. 15. Mbaizo O. 14. Rafanello J. 76. Rick A. (G) 6. Sullivan C. 7. Uhre M. 39. Westfield F.	77. De Rosario A. (G) 23. Dominguez M. 11. Etienne D. 19. Franklin K. 78. Henry M. 29. Kerr D. 8. Longstaff M. 76. Stefanovic L. 6. Thompson K.
Coaches
Carnell B.	Fraser R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Vassilev I. ⚽, Baribo T. (A),
29', Glesnes J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Petretta R. 🟨,
59', Coello A. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
64', Wagner K. 🟨,
67', Damiani B. ↓, Uhre M. ↑,
67', Baribo T. ↓, Iloski M. ↑,
76', Brynhildsen O. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
76', Corbeanu T. ↓, Henry M. ↑,
79', Makhanya O. 🟨,
80', Kerr D. 🟨,
81', Bueno J. ↓, Lukic J. ↑,
88', Sullivan Q. ↓, Sullivan C. ↑,
88', Vassilev I. ↓, Bedoya A. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Kerr D. ⚽, Henry M. (A),
90+6', Mihailovic D. ↓, Etienne D. ↑,
90+6', Petretta R. ↓, Thompson K. ↑,
90+10', Thompson K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 2.

Philadelphia is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Toronto is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Philadelphia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Philadelphia has had a series of home games.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.

In this match, Philadelphia is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Philadelphia: Glavinovich I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Brynhildsen O. (Ankle Injury) Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Monlouis Z. (Lower-Body Injury) Petretta R. (Head Injury) Wingo H. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Philadelphia: Bender B. (Calf Injury)

We predict that Philadelphia will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 32:35. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Philadelphia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2.2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philadelphia Union
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:2 ✺
MLS
26.07.25	Philadelphia Union - Colorado Rapids	3:1 ✺
19.07.25	Houston Dynamo - Philadelphia Union	1:1 ✺
16.07.25	Philadelphia Union - CF Montréal	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Philadelphia Union - New York Red Bulls	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWTWW
- Toronto FC
MLS
26.07.25	Charlotte - Toronto FC	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Nashville SC - Toronto FC	1:0 ✺
16.07.25	San Diego - Toronto FC	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Toronto FC - Atlanta United	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	New York City - Toronto FC	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
28.05.25	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	1:2
13.07.24	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	2:1
29.05.24	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	0:0
30.08.23	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	3:1
22.04.23	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	4:2
09.10.22	Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC	4:0
16.04.22	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	2:1

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