Match Info

MLS

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, CA)

Referee: Pennington A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	TSN 4, TSN 5
Usa	MLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
World	EA Sports FC


	San Diego		Toronto FC

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6.25	Watch
	1.42	4.8	6.25
	1.42	4.9	6.8	Watch
	1.45	5	6.85
				Watch
	1.4	4.75	6.5
	1.44	4.96	6.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.35)	4.86 ↓ (5.26)	6.59 ↓ (8.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego
66.2%

Draw
19.5%

Toronto FC
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.7%

18.1%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.1%

17.5%

10.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Toronto FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Diego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	15.4%	0%

San Diego - Toronto FC Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - San Diego (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: San Diego will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): San Diego will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. San Diego (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Sisniega P. (G) 33. Verhoeven O. 97. McVey C. 25. Pilcher I. 22. Negri F. 8. Valakari O. 14. de la Torre L. 6. Tverskov J. 10. Dreyer A. 9. Angel T. 77. Mighten A.	1. Johnson S. (G) 22. Laryea R. 5. Long K. 6. Thompson K. 17. Rosted S. 28. Petretta R. 8. Longstaff M. 23. Dominguez M. 14. Coello A. 7. Corbeanu T. 9. Brynhildsen O.
Substitutes
24. Boateng E. 27. Bombino L. 5. Diop H. 1. dos Santos C. J. (G) 26. Duah M. 98. Jackson J. (G) 11. Lozano H.	71. Cimermancic M. 77. De Rosario A. (G) 11. Etienne D. 19. Franklin K. 90. Gavran L. (G) 29. Kerr D. 21. Osorio J. 16. Spicer T. 76. Stefanovic L.
Coaches
Varas M.	Fraser R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', Negri F. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Corbeanu T. (Pen),
31', Petretta R. ↓, Spicer T. ↑,
40', de la Torre L. 🟨,
45', Valakari O. 🟨,
45+3', Corbeanu T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Angel T. ↓, Lozano H. ↑,
60', Mighten A. ↓, Boateng E. ↑,
60', Negri F. ↓, Bombino L. ↑,
65', Bombino L. 🟨,
70', Corbeanu T. ↓, Etienne D. ↑,
70', Brynhildsen O. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
75', Longstaff M. ↓, Osorio J. ↑,
79', Verhoeven O. ↓, Duah M. ↑,
90', Pilcher I. 🟨,
90+2', Boateng E. 🟨,
90+4', Coello A. 🟨,
90+5', Long K. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 14).

San Diego is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Toronto's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, San Diego has had a series of away games.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

In this match, San Diego is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in San Diego: Alvarado Jr A. (Knee Injury) Ingvartsen M. (Lower-Body Injury) Kumado W. (Lower-Body Injury) Reyes A. (Lower-Body Injury)

There will not play in Toronto: Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Monlouis Z. (Lower-Body Injury) Wingo H. (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in San Diego: Godoy A. (Lower-Body Injury) dos Santos C. J. (Face Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Osorio J. (Lower-Body Injury)

We predict that San Diego will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego FC
MLS
12.07.25	Chicago Fire - San Diego	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	San Diego - Houston Dynamo	3:4 ✺
28.06.25	FC Dallas - San Diego	2:3 ✺
25.06.25	Vancouver Whitecaps - San Diego	3:5 ✺
14.06.25	Minnesota United - San Diego	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WLWWW
- Toronto FC
MLS
12.07.25	Toronto FC - Atlanta United	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	New York City - Toronto FC	3:1 ✺
28.06.25	Toronto FC - Portland Timbers	3:0 ✺
25.06.25	Toronto FC - New York Red Bulls	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	Toronto FC - Charlotte	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLWTL

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