Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Wild Horse Pass Stadium (Chandler, AZ)

Referee: Albuquerque R. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Phoenix Rising		Loudoun United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.72
	2.31	3.75	2.84
	2.32	3.42	2.89	Watch
	2.31	3.48	2.76	Watch
	2.18	3.62	2.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.7)	3.53 ↑ (3.3)	2.81 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Phoenix Rising
40.6%

Draw
26.3%

Loudoun United
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

27.8%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

28.3%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Phoenix Rising's performance.

Loudoun United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Loudoun United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Phoenix Rising that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loudoun United than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Loudoun United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Phoenix Rising - Loudoun United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rakovsky P. (G) 2. Smith C. 51. Essengue A. 33. Czichos R. 87. Flores D. 17. Scearce J. 9. Sacko I. 8. Okello N. 10. Avayevu H. 22. Johnson D. 91. Cabral R.	23. Fauroux H. (G) 3. Tingey K. 5. Leerman Y. 32. Tubbs G. 6. Awuah K. 12. Skundrich D. (C) 4. McCabe T. 14. Ryan Z. 10. Valot F. 20. Mines B. 9. Ordonez A.
Substitutes
14. Cuello E. 12. Dennis C. 80. Emmers X. 23. Flood R. 29. Formella D. 4. Mar Boye P. 88. Rizzo P. 6. Sainte C. F. 76. Shaw T. (G)	11. Aboukoura A. 21. Akinyode B. 15. Bidois R. 22. Dambrot R. 26. Glasgow O. 30. Jack R. (G) 8. Nyeman M.
Coaches
Kah P.	Martin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Valot F. ⚽, Mines B. (A),
12', Mines B. 🟨,
25', Tingey K. 🟨,
30', Flores D. 🟨,
41', Tubbs G. 🟨,
45+4', Czichos R. 🟨,
45+8', Valot F. 🟨,
45+9', 0 - 2, Mines B. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ryan Z. ↓, Glasgow O. ↑,
46', Smith C. ↓, Mar Boye P. ↑,
46', Czichos R. ↓, Sainte C. F. ↑,
54', Okello N. ↓, Emmers X. ↑,
54', Flores D. ↓, Cuello E. ↑,
55', Cuello E. 🟨,
61', Mines B. ↓, Aboukoura A. ↑,
68', Cabral R. ↓, Dennis C. ↑,
74', Ordonez A. ↓, Bidois R. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Leerman Y. (Own goal),
87', Valot F. ↓, Akinyode B. ↑,
87', Awuah K. ↓, Dambrot R. ↑,
90+9', Dambrot R. 🟨,
90+9', Dennis C. 🟨,
90+11', 2 - 2, Sainte C. F. ⚽, Dennis C. (A),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Phoenix Rising may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Phoenix Rising won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
13.09.25	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:2 ✺
05.09.25	Phoenix Rising - Las Vegas Lights	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Phoenix Rising - El Paso Locomotive	3:3 ✺
23.08.25	Phoenix Rising - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	4:1 ✺
16.08.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TTTWT
- Loudoun United
USL Championship
13.09.25	Loudoun United - San Antonio	2:5 ✺
06.09.25	El Paso Locomotive - Loudoun United	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Loudoun United - Miami	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Charleston Battery - Loudoun United	4:1 ✺
USL Cup
20.08.25	Loudoun United - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
31.08.24	Loudoun United - Phoenix Rising	0:1
29.04.23	Phoenix Rising - Loudoun United	3:1
18.06.22	Loudoun United - Phoenix Rising	4:3

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