Match Info

USL Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Segra Field (Leesburg, VA)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Loudoun United		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.08	3.25	3.05
	2.13	3.34	3.16
	2.14	3.38	3.15	Watch
	2.14	3.37	3.16	Watch
	2.28	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.18)	3.31 ↓ (3.35)	2.93 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Loudoun United
40.8%

Draw
27.8%

Sacramento Republic
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

26.2%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.4%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Loudoun United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loudoun United than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Loudoun United - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Fauroux H. (G) 3. Tingey K. 5. Leerman Y. 22. Dambrot R. 6. Awuah K. 12. Skundrich D. (C) 4. McCabe T. 17. Santos P. 10. Valot F. 11. Aboukoura A. 9. Ordonez A.	99. Mazzola J. (G) 5. Timmer J. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. 2. Gurr J. 8. Lopez R. (C) 20. Willey B. 22. Benitez M. 19. Ross N. 11. Cicerone R. 9. Herrera J.
Substitutes
15. Bidois R. 26. Glasgow O. 30. Jack R. (G) 31. Karamoko H. 20. Mines B. 8. Nyeman M. 14. Ryan Z.	90. Bennett K. 21. Djedje R. 23. Edwards A. 24. Jamieson L. 10. Parano C. 3. Spaulding R. 55. Ukaegbu C. 1. Vitiello D. (G) 17. Wanner D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Cicerone R. 🟨,
34', Aboukoura A. 🟨,
43', Fauroux H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Santos P. ↓, Glasgow O. ↑,
57', Ordonez A. ↓, Ryan Z. ↑,
63', Herrera J. ↓, Bennett K. ↑,
63', Lopez R. ↓, Parano C. ↑,
75', McCabe T. 🟨,
76', Gurr J. ↓, Edwards A. ↑,
76', Timmer J. ↓, Ukaegbu C. ↑,
89', Cicerone R. ↓, Jamieson L. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Bennett K. (Pen),
1, Tingey K. (Pen),
2, Ross N. (Pen),
2, Aboukoura A. (Pen),
3, Edwards A. (Pen),
3, Ryan Z. (Pen),
4, Benitez M. (Pen),
4, Glasgow O. (Pen),
5, Parano C. (Pen),

Preview

Recent form of Loudoun has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sacramento Republic is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Loudoun won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.7:3.3).

Including home match between the teams, Loudoun won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Loudoun United
USL Championship
16.08.25	Loudoun United - Indy Eleven	3:2 ✺
09.08.25	Rhode Island - Loudoun United	0:0 ✺
01.08.25	Tulsa - Loudoun United	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
26.07.25	North Carolina - Loudoun United	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
19.07.25	Loudoun United - Oakland Roots	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLLL
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
16.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Oakland Roots	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	San Antonio - Sacramento Republic	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
26.07.25	Spokane Velocity - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
19.07.25	Sacramento Republic - Lexington	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
27.04.24	Sacramento Republic - Loudoun United	3:1
19.08.23	Loudoun United - Sacramento Republic	1:3
10.09.22	Sacramento Republic - Loudoun United	4:0

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