Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Wild Horse Pass Stadium (Chandler, AZ)

Referee: Bensalah N. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Phoenix Rising		New Mexico United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.45	2.82
	2.34	3.62	2.89
	2.28	3.7	2.77	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.75
	2.29	3.54	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.24)	3.52 ↑ (3.26)	2.82 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Phoenix Rising
40.7%

Draw
26.4%

New Mexico United
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

28.1%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

27%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rakovsky P. (G) 2. Smith C. 24. Pelayo A. 6. Vukovic A. 20. Biasi L. 13. Moursou J. 8. Gomez D. 17. JP Scearce (C) 10. Avayevu H. 7. Sacko I. 22. Johnson D.	13. Shakes K. (G) 15. Jabang O. (C) 27. Howell M. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 19. Bailey Z. 28. Wilkerson C. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 21. Noel V. 11. Nava C. 29. Archimede L.
Substitutes
45. Capetillo A. 12. Dennis C. 87. Flores D. 33. Gaydon J. 4. Mar Boye P. 14. Odunze C. (G) 44. Ping J. 91. Ramirez E. 11. Studenhofft G.	56. Arozarena R. (G) 18. Djeffal S. 5. Harris D. 10. Hurst G. 17. LaCava J. 9. Rennicks J. 16. Seymore W.
Coaches
Kah P.	Sanchez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Sacko I. (Penalty Awarded),
25', Howell M. 🟨,
45+3', JP Scearce 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Moursou J. 🟨,
61', Reid-Stephen N. ↓, Harris D. ↑,
61', Archimede L. ↓, Rennicks J. ↑,
62', Nava C. ↓, Hurst G. ↑,
65', Gloster C. 🟨,
73', 🟥,
74', Vukovic A. ↓, Flores D. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, JP Scearce ⚽, Avayevu H. (A),
76', Jabang O. ↓, LaCava J. ↑,
80', Noel V. 🟨,
82', 3 - 0, Sacko I. ⚽,
89', Avayevu H. ↓, Capetillo A. ↑,
89', Johnson D. ↓, Mar Boye P. ↑,
89', Gomez D. ↓, Studenhofft G. ↑,
90', Hurst G. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:32. (average 1.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Phoenix Rising won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 2.1:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Phoenix Rising - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.08%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
04.04.26	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ET ✺
USL Championship
28.03.26	Tulsa - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Phoenix Rising - Oakland Roots	2:2 ✺
US Open Cup
17.03.26	Phoenix Rising - San Ramon	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWTTW
- New Mexico United
USL Championship
04.04.26	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
01.04.26	New Mexico United - El Paso Locomotive	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
28.03.26	New Mexico United - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3:2 ✺
21.03.26	San Antonio - New Mexico United	1:0 ✺
US Open Cup
18.03.26	New Mexico United - Cruizers	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
04.10.25	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	0:1
USL Cup
31.05.25	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	4:3 penalties
USL Championship
10.05.25	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising	1:2
03.11.24	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising	2:1
09.10.24	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising	1:2
30.03.24	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	0:1
07.10.23	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	1:2

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