What is the expert prediction for Platense vs Peñarol de Montevideo?

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Platense vs Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, May 07, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Platense		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	4.5	Watch
	2.12	2.88	3.95	Watch
	2.22	2.93	4.26
	2.27	2.85	3.82	Watch
	2.1	2.7	3.9
	2.06	2.88	4.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.27)	2.86 ↓ (3.27)	4.17 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Platense
44.1%

Draw
33.1%

Peñarol de Montevideo
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

28.9%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

28.8%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Platense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Peñarol de Montevideo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Platense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Platense will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Platense: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Borgogno M. (G) 4. Lagos A. 13. Vazquez I. (C) 31. Victor Cuesta 3. Silva T. 15. Amarfil M. 26. Ferreira P. 7. Mainero G. 43. Retamar K. 10. Zapiola F. 9. Nasif T.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 8. Fernandez N. 5. Remedi E. 21. Jesus Trindade 32. Umpierrez L. 9. Batista F. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
24. Barrios M. 33. Gauto J. 5. Gomez I. 23. Heredia L. 99. Lencina G. 21. Lotti A. 34. Mendia M. 18. Merlini B. 32. Quiros S. 6. Raggio E. 25. Saborido J. 22. Sumavil N. (G)	22. Alvez F. 18. Barbas G. 36. Barboza B. 1. Britos S. (G) 25. Gonzalez M. 11. Hernandez A. 93. Laxalt D. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 14. Rodriguez K. 23. Togni G.
Coaches
Zunino W.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Remedi E. ↓, Laxalt D. ↑,
14', Ferreira L. 🟨,
17', Nasif T. ↓, Lotti A. ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Batista F. ⚽, Laxalt D. (A),
30', Batista F. 🟨,
34', Lemos M. 🟨,
34', Mainero G. 🟨,
39', 1 - 1, Lagos A. ⚽, Zapiola F. (A),
41', Zapiola F. 🟨,
45', Olivera M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Batista F. ↓, Togni G. ↑,
59', Fernandez N. 🟨,
76', Umpierrez L. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
77', Zapiola F. ↓, Gomez I. ↑,
79', Lotti A. ↓, Lencina G. ↑,
80', Mainero G. ↓, Mendia M. ↑,
87', Retamar K. ↓, Gauto J. ↑,
87', Amarfil M. ↓, Barrios M. ↑,
90+8', Aguerre W. 🟨,

Preview

Platense has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peñarol's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Platense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Platense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Platense: Amarfil M. (Inactive) Bobadilla H. (Muscle Injury) Goni G. (Muscle Injury) Luna Diale M. (Inactive) Minerva F. (Muscle Injury) Portillo M. (Muscle Injury) Quiros S. (Hamstring Injury) Vazquez I. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Peñarol: Cabrera J. (Inactive) Darias E. (Inactive) Fernandez L. (Inactive) Gularte E. (Inactive) Herrera N. (Injury) Olivera M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Peñarol: Angulo L. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Platense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

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Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Platense: 1.73% Penarol: 1.03%

Last Results with these Odds

Platense - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.6%, but this team recently wins 54% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Platense
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.26	Platense - Estudiantes La Plata	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Platense - Independiente Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Platense - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	Central Córdoba - Platense	4:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWLLW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense	1:2

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