Match Info

URUGUAY: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 26 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Plaza Colonia		Boston River

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.05	3.1	3.7	Watch
	2	3.2	3.96	Watch
	2.1	3	3.75
	2.01	3.16	3.92	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (3.19)	3.12 ↓ (3.25)	3.7 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Uruguayan Primera Division with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: GolTV (English)

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
45.2%

Draw
29.7%

Boston River
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.6%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

28.6%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Plaza Colonia's performance.

Boston River has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boston River might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Plaza Colonia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (+17.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Boston River could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Plaza Colonia - Boston River Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Plaza Colonia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Boston River will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Silva J. (G) 20. Redin E. 2. Lorenzi M. 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 22. Ramos J. 27. Barros C. 23. Piriz F. (C) 3. Calleros Y. 11. Pablo Garcia 10. Ebere C. 7. Diogo Oliveira	1. Antunez B. (G) 16. Silva A. 30. Gonzalez M. (C) 14. Bortagaray G. 15. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 32. Barcia B. 8. Vera M. 10. Amado A. 9. Anello A. 7. Rodriguez F. 28. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
9. Alex Bruno 80. Carrizo L. 18. Cayetano A. 5. Meite Y. 30. Ocampo A. 17. Otegui S. 6. Redin M. 44. Reyes G. (G) 16. Velazquez M. 8. Villalba D.	31. Acosta J. 99. Adamo V. 25. Chiappini F. 6. Dafonte F. 4. Gomez M. 33. Hernandez E. (G) 21. Lopez G. 22. Martinez F. 26. Munoa F. 11. Noguera F.
Coaches
Diaz S.	Viera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
24', Barros C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Barros C. ↓, Redin M. ↑,
46', Ebere C. ↓, Alex Bruno ↑,
57', Rodriguez F. ↓, Adamo V. ↑,
65', Pablo Garcia ↓, Ocampo A. ↑,
66', Redin M. 🟨,
70', Piriz F. ↓, Carrizo L. ↑,
71', Anello A. ↓, Munoa F. ↑,
72', Gonzalez A. ↓, Noguera F. ↑,
80', Noguera F. 🟨,
86', Barcia B. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
86', Silva A. ↓, Acosta J. ↑,
87', Calleros Y. ↓, Villalba D. ↑,
88', 0 - 1, Munoa F. ⚽,
90', Acosta J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plaza Colonia won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Boston River could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Plaza Colonia will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Plaza Colonia won 4 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:13 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Plaza Colonia won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:5 (average 1.3:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Boston River - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.28%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.25	Nacional Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Plaza Colonia - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
07.03.25	Montevideo City Torque - Plaza Colonia	1:1 ✺
23.02.25	Plaza Colonia - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
14.02.25	Cerro - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.5 TWTLW
- Boston River
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.25	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:3 ✺
17.03.25	River Plate Montevideo - Boston River	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.03.25	Bahia - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.03.25	Progreso - Boston River	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.03.25	Boston River - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
08.12.23	Plaza Colonia - Boston River	3:2
15.05.23	Boston River - Plaza Colonia	1:1
30.07.22	Plaza Colonia - Boston River	1:1
14.06.22	Plaza Colonia - Boston River	0:0
06.02.22	Boston River - Plaza Colonia	0:0
22.11.21	Boston River - Plaza Colonia	2:0
09.08.21	Plaza Colonia - Boston River	0:0

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