Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 21

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Plaza Colonia		Cerrito

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.00	2.95
	2.14	3.12	3.44
	2.16	3.22	3.38	Watch
	2.11	3.05	3.40
	2.15	3.54	3.34
	2.10	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.25)	3.16 ↑ (3)	3.28 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
42.8%

Draw
29.1%

Cerrito
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

29.2%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plaza Colonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Cerrito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Plaza Colonia - Cerrito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Isasmendi J. ⚽,
38', 0 - 2, Batista L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
67', 1 - 2, Lopez M. ⚽,
82', Silva J. 🟥,
87', Viera S. 🟥,
87', Carrizo L. 🟥,
90+4', 1 - 3, Isasmendi J. ⚽,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 3rd and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 3.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Plaza Colonia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Plaza Colonia has faced a series of away games on the road.

Plaza Colonia is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Plaza Colonia has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:9 (averaging 1.5:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Plaza Colonia against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 8:6 goals (averaging 2:1.5 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	26:21	5	32
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.8%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Cerrito - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.35%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguay Copa
30.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Plaza Colonia	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Plaza Colonia - Paysandú	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Rentistas - Plaza Colonia	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
12.09.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTTLW
- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.09.26	Cerrito - La Luz	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerrito	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.09.26	Cerrito - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Atenas de San Carlos - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.09.26	Cerro - Cerrito	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.26	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:0
10.11.24	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	1:0
20.07.24	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.10.22	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	1:3
26.06.22	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	3:0
04.06.22	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:1
11.10.21	Plaza Colonia - Cerrito	3:3

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