Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 1

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	River Plate Montevideo		Cerro

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.22	3	3.2	Watch
	2.36	3.12	3.38
	2.21	2.97	3.55	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.33	3.04	3.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.11)	3.03 ↓ (3.21)	3.28 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
41%

Draw
30.6%

Cerro
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

28.8%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

28.2%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Cerro will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. River Plate (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera F. 9. Correa T. 14. De Leon F. 15. Jourdan E. 18. Lopez I. 2. Perez F. 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 10. Vera A.	1. Cubero M. (G) 32. Caceres S. 27. Camacho S. 15. Cuello E. 6. Frugone A. 9. Larrosa E. 7. Macelli A. (C) 2. Salaberry H. 17. Silvestre F. 3. Suarez M. 5. Villar M.
Substitutes
22. Alfonso M. 6. Cabrera R. 29. Camejo L. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 3. Gissi D. 28. Gonzalez L. 27. Lopez I. 26. Orono G. 5. Rodriguez J. 30. Sanchez D.	22. Acosta F. 25. Bacchia R. (G) 28. Da Rosa C. 11. Falconis O. 23. Farias M. 13. Iraola F. 8. Miranda A. 77. Ocampo M. 14. Sosa E. 19. Techera F.
Coaches
Ribas J.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Cubero M. ↓, Bacchia R. ↑,
35', Macelli A. 🟨,
38', Salaberry H. 🟨,
45', Correa Gonzalez F. N. 🟨,
45', Cuello E. 🟨,
45+4', Jourdan E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Silvestre F. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
60', Cuello E. ↓, Falconis O. ↑,
60', Camacho S. ↓, Ocampo M. ↑,
62', Suarez M. 🟨,
73', Jourdan E. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
79', Caceres S. ↓, Sosa E. ↑,
82', Lopez I. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
90', De Leon F. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 6)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

River Plate is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.06.25	Cerro Largo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
22.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Plaza Colonia - River Plate Montevideo	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3 ✺
06.06.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TWTLL
- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	2:1 ✺
19.06.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
13.06.25	Plaza Colonia - Cerro	2:2 ✺
06.06.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
06.06.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
03.02.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
26.11.24	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	1:0
26.05.24	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	3:2
Uruguay Copa
06.03.24	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
08.10.23	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0
25.02.23	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro	3:2

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