Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	19:00	Disney+
Mexico	16:00	Disney+
Peru	17:00	Disney+
Uruguay	19:00	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	18:00	Disney+


	Cerro		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.2	Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.25
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.3	3.1	3.57
	2.25	3.1	3.37	Watch
	2.2	3	3.4
	2.2	2.94	3.21	Watch
	2.18	3.1	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.44)	3.04 (3.04)	3.33 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro
42%

Draw
30.3%

Cerro Largo
27.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.3%

30.7%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

30%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Cerro - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cerro will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Cerro Largo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Irrazabal Y. (G) 35. Nongoy P. 16. Guasone J. 21. Arena N. 17. Rodriguez G. 5. Macelli A. (C) 8. Miranda A. 32. Mederos R. 27. Barros C. 70. Leonardo Pais 14. Rodriguez E.	12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 3. Piegas A. 19. Prado A. 20. Franca S. 15. Assis S. (C) 5. Marcel S. 30. Hernandez B. 7. Viera G. 26. de Leon E. 29. Lozano B.
Substitutes
6. Bregante F. 1. Denis D. (G) 11. Forclaz E. 2. Iraola F. 3. Lima A. 9. Morales B. 13. Quinteros B. 7. Severo A. 20. Villar M. 33. Zamurio A.	13. Barone B. 22. Bertocchi N. 21. Cabral E. 18. Daguerre D. 6. Ergas R. 8. Garcia M. 24. Gonzalez L. (G) 25. Jourdan E. 10. Pandiani A. 23. Pipe
Coaches
Cappuccio A.	Silva B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Mederos R. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Guasone J. ⚽,
36', Rodriguez E. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
43', Arena N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mederos R. ↓, Bregante F. ↑,
61', Barros C. ↓, Forclaz E. ↑,
64', Viera G. ↓, Pipe ↑,
64', Hernandez B. ↓, Pandiani A. ↑,
71', Guasone J. 🟨,
71', Lozano B. 🟨,
73', Leonardo Pais 🟨,
83', Leonardo Pais ↓, Severo A. ↑,
83', Hernandez A. ↓, Daguerre D. ↑,
83', Lozano B. ↓, Barone B. ↑,
84', Forclaz E. 🟨,
86', Piegas A. 🟨,
90+10', 1 - 1, Pipe ⚽,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 7th and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

Recently, Cerro Largo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cerro has recorded 3 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:27 (averaging 0.6:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerro against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 5:8 goals (averaging 0.6:1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	CA Cerro	12	5	3	4	14:17	-3	18
14	Cerro Largo	12	1	6	5	9:14	-5	9

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Largo - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 30.95%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Cerro
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	2:3 ✺
04.10.26	Cerro - Montevideo Wanderers	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cerro	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLTLL
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.26	Cerro Largo - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
04.10.26	Danubio - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
30.09.26	Cerro Largo - Rentistas	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.09.26	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Cerro Largo - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
29.05.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	2:0
10.04.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	1:1
07.09.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	0:1
19.06.25	Cerro - Cerro Largo	2:1
17.03.25	Cerro Largo - Cerro	0:0
28.09.24	Cerro Largo - Cerro	3:1
14.07.24	Cerro - Cerro Largo	0:1

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