Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 9

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi (Colonia del Sacramento)


	Plaza Colonia		La Luz

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.85	3.80
	2.08	2.72	3.8
	2.14	2.87	3.96
	2.16	2.74	4.01	Watch
	2.09	2.6	3.85
	2.1	2.7	3.92	Watch
	1.98	2.85	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.12)	2.76 ↓ (3.09)	3.88 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plaza Colonia
43.8%

Draw
32.9%

La Luz
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

30%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

29.7%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Plaza Colonia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plaza Colonia than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Plaza Colonia - La Luz Predictions

Users Predictions: Plaza Colonia will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
82', 🟥,
83', 🟥,
90+4', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 10 and 11)

Plaza Colonia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, La Luz has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Plaza Colonia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Plaza Colonia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Plaza Colonia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Plaza Colonia	21	9	5	7	26:21	5	32
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

Plaza Colonia - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 43.76%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

La Luz - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 26.21%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plaza Colonia
Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.26	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Plaza Colonia - Atenas de San Carlos	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Paysandú - Plaza Colonia	1:2 ✺
05.06.26	Plaza Colonia - Huracán Paso de la Arena	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWTL
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
28.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
21.06.26	La Luz - Cerrito	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	4:0 ✺
06.06.26	La Luz - Paysandú	1:2 ✺
31.05.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - La Luz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
25.09.24	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	2:0
09.06.24	La Luz - Plaza Colonia	2:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.10.23	La Luz - Plaza Colonia	1:1
17.03.23	Plaza Colonia - La Luz	1:1

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