Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 8

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	River Plate Montevideo		La Luz

	1	X	2
	2.70	2.95	2.45
	2.45	3.05	2.65
	2.92	3.05	2.59
	2.9	3.01	2.55	Watch
	2.85	2.90	2.45
	2.89	3.15	2.46
	2.70	2.90	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.45)	3 ↓ (3.05)	2.51 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
33%

Draw
30.5%

La Luz
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.4%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

31%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

River Plate Montevideo - La Luz Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 1 - 20%). La Luz will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 9 and 11)

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

La Luz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	River Plate	21	8	6	7	31:26	5	30
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate Montevideo - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.66%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

La Luz - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.89%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
20.06.26	Colón Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
14.06.26	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	6:4 ✺
06.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
31.05.26	River Plate Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	0:2 ✺
23.05.26	Rentistas - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLLW
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.06.26	La Luz - Cerrito	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Atenas de San Carlos - La Luz	4:0 ✺
06.06.26	La Luz - Paysandú	1:2 ✺
31.05.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - La Luz	1:1 ✺
24.05.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
26.11.23	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	1:0
16.07.23	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	0:0
22.04.23	La Luz - River Plate Montevideo	2:2

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