Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 33

Date: 18 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Rock D. (Eng)


	Plymouth Argyle		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.8	5
	1.65	3.9	4.75
	1.57	4	5.75
	1.68	3.91	5.44
	1.65	3.7	5.25
	1.65	3.92	5.1	Watch
	1.66	3.85	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.73)	3.87 ↑ (3.78)	5.16 ↑ (4.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
57.3%

Draw
24.4%

Fleetwood Town
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

24.8%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

24%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Fleetwood Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	5.6%	16.7%

Plymouth Argyle - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Plymouth will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Fleetwood will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Plymouth: 58.6% – 97%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 17).

Plymouth has the most likely position - 2 (40.19%), has project points - 95, has currently - 67, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (25%), has a good chance of promoted (78%), has a chance of win league (34%).

Fleetwood has the most likely position - 13 (12.92%), has project points - 57, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 26, importance 39, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 1.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Plymouth could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Plymouth is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 17-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
14.02.23	Oxford United - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
11.02.23	Plymouth Argyle - Portsmouth	3:1 ✺
04.02.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Plymouth Argyle	1:0 ✺
21.01.23	Plymouth Argyle - Cheltenham Town	4:2 ✺
14.01.23	Ipswich Town - Plymouth Argyle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLWT
- Fleetwood Town
English League One
14.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
11.02.23	Charlton Athletic - Fleetwood Town	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
07.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
English League One
04.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Burton Albion	2:3 ✺
English FA Cup
28.01.23	Sheffield Wednesday - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
06.08.22	Fleetwood Town - Plymouth Argyle	2:1
25.01.22	Fleetwood Town - Plymouth Argyle	3:3
28.08.21	Plymouth Argyle - Fleetwood Town	1:1
13.02.21	Plymouth Argyle - Fleetwood Town	1:0
21.11.20	Fleetwood Town - Plymouth Argyle	5:1
16.03.19	Fleetwood Town - Plymouth Argyle	2:0
24.11.18	Plymouth Argyle - Fleetwood Town	2:1

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