Match Info

K3 League - Round 11

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Pocheon Stadium (Pocheon)


	Pocheon		Changwon City

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.45	Watch
	2.08	3.3	3.67
	2.02	3.21	3.57	Watch
	2	2.88	3.5
	1.98	3.08	3.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.89)	3.11 ↓ (3.33)	3.57 ↓ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pocheon
45.2%

Draw
29.3%

Changwon City
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

27.6%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.5%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pocheon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Changwon City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pocheon than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Pocheon - Changwon City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Ko B. B. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pocheon won 2.

Pocheon is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Changwon has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pocheon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Pocheon won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pocheon won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Pocheon	23	13	7	3	38:19	19	46
8	Changwon	23	7	8	8	26:28	-2	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Pocheon
South Korean K3 League
09.05.26	Chuncheon - Pocheon	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Pocheon - Yangpyeong	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Yeoju - Pocheon	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Pocheon - Siheung	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Mokpo City - Pocheon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLT
- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
09.05.26	Yangpyeong - Changwon City	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Changwon City - Siheung	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Changwon City - Gyeongju KH&NP	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Changwon City - Busan Kyotong	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
20.07.25	Changwon City - Pocheon	1:2
29.03.25	Pocheon - Changwon City	1:0
27.07.24	Changwon City - Pocheon	0:0
13.04.24	Pocheon - Changwon City	1:1
11.11.23	Changwon City - Pocheon	0:0
17.06.23	Pocheon - Changwon City	0:0
03.09.22	Pocheon - Changwon City	0:0

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