Match Info

Division 1 - Round 7

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Grodzisk Mazowiecki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki		Warta Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.3	2.1	Watch
	2.65	3.40	2.30
	2.9	3.4	2.22
	3.04	3.65	2.26
	2.92	3.55	2.27	Watch
	2.95	3.6	2.2
	2.84	3.44	2.19
	2.8	3.3	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.51)	3.46 ↓ (3.48)	2.21 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
32%

Draw
26.6%

Warta Poznań
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

26.8%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

26.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's form might have worsened.

Warta Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Warta Poznań's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Warta Poznań than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Warta Poznań, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Warta Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Warta will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaminski K. (G) 2. Glogowski K. 3. Dembek B. 17. Niewiadomski J. 42. Zbrog J. 14. Uzoigwe H. 21. Los K. (C) 23. Ciepiela B. 15. Niski N. 20. Oshafi A. 9. Majewski R.	42. Przybylak L. (C) 2. Lepczynski K. 3. Azatsky O. 24. Avdeev D. 7. Apolinarski J. 22. Lysiak K. 13. Niedzielski J. 17. Stefaniak M. 77. Kendzia J. 11. Wolczek A. 9. Stanek M.
Substitutes
5. Dias M. 12. Glacel M. (G) 10. Jaron D. 7. Jedrasik J. 11. Kargulewicz K. 27. Konstantyn J. 16. Koprowski O. 4. Ruszkiewicz M. 19. Turski H.	35. Jakubowski F. 21. Kalata K. 23. Kusztal P. 6. Lelito B. 10. Mlynarczyk A. 1. Piechowiak B. (G) 29. Rychert K. 19. Wnuk A. 16. Wybieralski K.
Coaches
Kafarski T.	Tokarczyk M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Wolczek A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Wolczek A. ↓, Kusztal P. ↑,
52', Uzoigwe H. 🟨,
59', Niewiadomski J. 🟨,
60', Niski N. 🟨,
71', Uzoigwe H. ↓, Ruszkiewicz M. ↑,
71', Niski N. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
71', Majewski R. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
72', Lysiak K. 🟨,
76', 1 - 0, Jaron D. ⚽, Ciepiela B. (A),
78', Apolinarski J. ↓, Rychert K. ↑,
78', Kendzia J. ↓, Wybieralski K. ↑,
86', Zbrog J. ↓, Konstantyn J. ↑,
90', Ciepiela B. ↓, Turski H. ↑,
90+2', Kusztal P. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Grodzisk Mazowiecki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Warta has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Warta Poznan: 1.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Warta Poznan	9	5	0	4	17:13	4	15

Last Results with these Odds

Warta Poznań - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.93%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Cup
01.09.26	Podhale Nowy Targ - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
28.08.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Termalica Nieciecza	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
14.08.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Stal Rzeszów	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Miedź Legnica - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTTTW
- Warta Poznań
Polish Division 1
30.08.26	Miedź Legnica - Warta Poznań	2:1 ✺
21.08.26	Chrobry Głogów - Warta Poznań	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Odra Opole - Warta Poznań	3:1 ✺
09.08.26	Termalica Nieciecza - Warta Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Cup
05.08.26	Warta Poznań - Resovia Rzeszów	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 LWLWL

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