Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 13

Date: 25 October 2024, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Pogoń Szczecin		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	8.5	Watch
	1.33	5.25	7.75
	1.33	5	8.5
	1.33	5.53	8.75
	1.34	5.41	8.38	Watch
	1.29	5	8
	1.32	5.35	8.3	Watch
	1.33	5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.4)	5.19 ↑ (4.8)	8.34 ↑ (6.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
70.7%

Draw
18%

Puszcza Niepołomice
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

19.4%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

18.6%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	5%	10%

Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: Pogoń Szczecin will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 23. Zech B. 4. Leo Borges 32. Koutris L. 21. Gamboa J. 22. Bichakhchyan V. 19. Lukasiak K. 8. Ulvestad F. 11. Grosicki K. (C) 9. Koulouris E.	1. Komar K. (G) 22. Craciun A. 4. Szymonowicz D. 3. Yakuba R. 33. Abramowicz D. 14. Serafin J. (C) 16. Walski M. 12. Stepien M. 70. Hajda W. 11. Cholewiak M. 35. Kosidis M.
Substitutes
20. Gorgon A. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 46. Klukowski A. 27. Korczakowski O. 7. Kurzawa R. 17. Lis J. 25. Lisowski W. 10. Przyborek A. 61. Smolinski K.	24. Blagaic J. 45. Kidric R. 6. Lee Jin-Hyun 8. Mrozinski P. 29. Okoniewski K. 31. Perchel M. (G) 17. Radecki M. 9. Siemaszko A. 27. Solowiej L.
Coaches
Kolendowicz R.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Yakuba R. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Koulouris E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Walski M. ↓, Radecki M. ↑,
46', Hajda W. ↓, Lee Jin-Hyun ↑,
56', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Gorgon A. ↑,
64', Gamboa J. 🟨,
69', Gamboa J. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
69', Lukasiak K. ↓, Przyborek A. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Kosidis M. ⚽,
83', 2 - 1, Wahlqvist L. ⚽,
84', Cholewiak M. ↓, Siemaszko A. ↑,
84', Stepien M. ↓, Blagaic J. ↑,
85', Grosicki K. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
85', Koutris L. ↓, Lisowski W. ↑,
86', Korczakowski O. 🟨,
90+1', Siemaszko A. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Recent matches Pogoń Szczecin is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Puszcza is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Pogoń Szczecin is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Keramitsis D. (Red Card) Loncar D. (Injury) Malec M. (Injury) Paryzek P. (Injury)

There will not play in Puszcza: Kidric R. (Injury) Siemaszko A. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:1 (average 1.8:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Pogoń Szczecin won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0 (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.10.24	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
06.10.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Piast Gliwice	1:0 ✺
27.09.24	GKS Katowice - Pogoń Szczecin	3:1 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.24	Stal Rzeszów - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLWW
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.10.24	Radomiak Radom - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
04.10.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - GKS Katowice	0:6 ✺
28.09.24	Raków Częstochowa - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.24	Górnik Łęczna - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
06.05.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:0
04.11.23	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:2
Polish Cup
29.11.16	Pogoń Szczecin - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0
26.10.16	Puszcza Niepołomice - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2

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