Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 21 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Puszcza Niepołomice		Cracovia

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.2
	3	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3.25	3.42	2.27
	3.22	3.36	2.26	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.1
	3.19	3.3	2.23	Watch
	3	3.4	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.6)	3.36 ↑ (3.31)	2.23 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puszcza Niepołomice
30%

Draw
27.9%

Cracovia
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

28.4%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

29.5%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Puszcza Niepołomice's form might have worsened.

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cracovia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Puszcza Niepołomice, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cracovia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Puszcza will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Cracovia will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cracovia: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Komar K. (G) 8. Mrozinski P. 22. Craciun A. 3. Yakuba R. 18. Siplak M. 14. Serafin J. (C) 5. Stepien K. 11. Cholewiak M. 6. Lee Jin-Hyun 33. Abramowicz D. 35. Kosidis M.	27. Ravas H. (G) 24. Jugas J. 15. Glik K. 5. Ghita V. 25. Kakabadze O. (C) 11. Maigaard M. 88. Sokolowski P. 18. Rozga F. 14. Hasic A. 9. Kallman B. 7. van Buren M.
Substitutes
70. Hajda W. 77. Kogut D. 29. Okoniewski K. 31. Perchel M. (G) 67. Revenco I. 27. Solowiej L. 12. Stepien M. 10. Tomalski H. 16. Walski M.	77. Al-Ammari A. 8. Atanasov J. 16. Biedrzycki B. 17. Bochnak M. 26. Burek J. (G) 22. Hoskonen A. 6. Janasik P. 19. Olafsson D. 10. Rakoczy M.
Coaches
Tulacz T.	Kroczek D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', Kosidis M. 🟨,
6', 1 - 0, Kosidis M. ⚽, Stepien K. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Ghita V. ⚽, Hasic A. (A),
18', Cholewiak M. 🟨,
45+1', Abramowicz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', van Buren M. ↓, Olafsson D. ↑,
46', Cholewiak M. ↓, Revenco I. ↑,
47', Rozga F. 🟨,
47', Craciun A. 🟨,
56', Revenco I. 🟨,
62', Kakabadze O. 🟨,
67', 1 - 2, Kakabadze O. ⚽, Kallman B. (A),
70', Rozga F. ↓, Rakoczy M. ↑,
72', Siplak M. ↓, Okoniewski K. ↑,
75', Yakuba R. 🟨,
76', Rakoczy M. 🟨,
78', Craciun A. 🟨,
81', Glik K. 🟨,
83', Lee Jin-Hyun ↓, Solowiej L. ↑,
83', Serafin J. ↓, Walski M. ↑,
84', Hasic A. ↓, Al-Ammari A. ↑,
88', Kosidis M. ↓, Stepien M. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium.

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Puszcza won 1.

Recent matches Puszcza is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Cracovia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Puszcza: Kidric R. (Injury) Kielis P. (Injury) Siemaszko A. (Injury)

There will not play in Cracovia: Smiglewski K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cracovia: Janasik P. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Puszcza won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Puszcza won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.09.24	Piast Gliwice - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.09.24	Górnik Zabrze - Puszcza Niepołomice	4:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
31.08.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Korona Kielce	0:0 ✺
24.08.24	Motor Lublin - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:0 ✺
16.08.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lechia Gdańsk	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TLTTW
- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.09.24	Cracovia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Radomiak Radom - Cracovia	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Cracovia - Górnik Zabrze	3:2 ✺
17.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	2:4 ✺
10.08.24	Korona Kielce - Cracovia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.24	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:1
21.10.23	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	1:1
Club Friendly
13.01.21	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:1
14.07.18	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	0:3
13.01.18	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0
14.08.13	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	2:1

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