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Current Win Probability
Polonia Warsaw 49.2%
Draw 24.8%
Lechia Gdańsk 26%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
61.8%
20.3%
17.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
64%
19.6%
17.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Polonia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Polonia Warsaw's form might have worsened.
Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lechia Gdańsk's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+14.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Polonia Warsaw, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-8.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lechia Gdańsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Polonia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
71. Jelen M. (G) 22. Olszewski P. 29. Marcjanik M. 16. Budnicki J. 20. Olafsson D. 2. Kuusk M. 6. Gnaase D. (C) 24. Terpilowski E. 23. Skrabb S. 99. Durmus I. 26. Tabara K.
22. Weirauch S. (G) 19. Kopasek S. 4. Lopata K. 21. Beskorovaynyi D. 3. Malov D. 11. Mena C. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 33. Wojtowicz T. 7. Dodaj K. 8. Adkonis J. 13. Shakh A.
Substitutes
17. Dadok R. 15. Golos A. 21. Kapusta A. 9. Kostorz K. 27. Kowalczyk S. 10. Mroz M. 94. Paszkowski J. 72. Sandach A. (G) 7. Vega D.
17. Bambecki I. 9. Glogowski M. 1. Holewinski A. (G) 6. Ivanov H. 40. Madej W. 77. Sinkiewicz D. 90. Sonko B. 59. Zakowiecki O. 23. Ziolkowski A.
Coaches
Stokowiec P.
Lupashko V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Wojtowicz T. ⚽,
31', Durmus I. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Terpilowski E. ⚽, Skrabb S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Neugebauer T. ↓, Ivanov H. ↑,
46', Olafsson D. ↓, Vega D. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Dodaj K. ⚽, Mena C. (A),
62', Kuusk M. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
63', Tabara K. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
64', Durmus I. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
64', Adkonis J. ↓, Glogowski M. ↑,
64', Lopata K. ↓, Madej W. ↑,
66', Shakh A. 🟨,
72', 1 - 3, Shakh A. ⚽,
74', Budnicki J. ↓, Golos A. ↑,
86', Dodaj K. ↓, Bambecki I. ↑,
87', 1 - 4, Mena C. ⚽, Wojtowicz T. (A),
90+2', Shakh A. ↓, Sinkiewicz D. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 4, Dadok R. ⚽,
Preview
A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).
Polonia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Lechia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Lechia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Polonia is considered a favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.8:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Polonia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).
Poland
Usa
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Jelen M. (G) 
Olafsson D. 
Kuusk M. 
Gnaase D. (C) 
Skrabb S. 
Durmus I. 
Kopasek S. 
Beskorovaynyi D. 
Mena C. (C) 
Dodaj K. 
Vega D. 
Ivanov H. 
Sonko B. 
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