Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ponferradina		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	2.8
	2.25	3	2.9
	2.31	3.05	3.1
	2.36	3.15	3.42
	2.3	2.89	3.25	Watch
	2.19	3.26	3.13
	2.31	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.1)	3.09 ↓ (3.19)	3.1 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
40.5%

Draw
29.8%

Leonesa
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.8%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.3%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ponferradina - Leonesa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (G) 10. Valle B. 4. Sibille K. 3. Novoa G. 9. Cabanzon Y. 18. Ramon A. 16. Lozano M. 15. Bustos A. 17. Carrique T. 24. Doue M. 21. Cortes J.	1. Banuz M. (G) 7. Calderon C. 5. Fornos Q. 3. Satrustegui E. 6. Presa K. 12. Ortega G. 10. Chacon L. 9. Justo M. 11. Samanes S. 17. Martinez A. 14. Bicho
Substitutes
2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 20. Costa A. 22. Esquerdo V. 6. Fernandez B. 12. Ferrer P. 7. Gomez E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 5. Lancho J. 19. Lopez A. 11. Mula A.	20. Alba T. 13. Amigo (G) 21. Artola J. 19. Escobar A. 2. Garcia V. 18. Lanchi 16. Maestre S. 31. Martinez I. 22. Pibe 4. Rodri Suarez 28. Ruiz A. 15. Ruiz V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Chacon L. ⚽,
34', Doue M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Bicho ↓, Ruiz A. ↑,
58', Lozano M. 🟨,
59', Samanes S. ↓, Artola J. ↑,
59', Calderon C. ↓, Pibe ↑,
61', Lozano M. ↓, Esquerdo V. ↑,
64', Ortega G. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
73', 🟨,
76', Sibille K. ↓, Lancho J. ↑,
76', Ramon A. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
76', Doue M. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Bustos A. ⚽,
86', Justo M. ↓, Rodri Suarez ↑,
88', Valle B. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 1, Esquerdo V. ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ponferradina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponferradina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.62%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.05.25	Real Sociedad B - Ponferradina	3:2 ✺
03.05.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Tarazona - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Zamora - Ponferradina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWLWW
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.05.25	Leonesa - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Ourense CF - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Leonesa	2:0 ✺
20.04.25	Leonesa - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Tarazona - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.10.24	Leonesa - Ponferradina	2:0
18.02.24	Leonesa - Ponferradina	0:0
29.10.23	Ponferradina - Leonesa	1:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
07.04.19	Leonesa - Ponferradina	1:1
18.11.18	Ponferradina - Leonesa	0:0
Club Friendly
02.08.17	Ponferradina - Leonesa	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
15.01.17	Leonesa - Ponferradina	0:0

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