The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ponferradina 33.7%
Draw 29.5%
Sporting de Gijón 36.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.3%
29.4%
30.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43.3%
31.6%
28.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.
Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting de Gijón's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+9.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-8.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting de Gijón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
24%
48%
28%
Ponferradina - Sporting de Gijón Predictions
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 6 - 24%). Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 7 - 28%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 48%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.4% – 67.6%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 13 (5.67%), has project points - 56, has currently - 6, has a chance of relegated (16%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (17%), has a small chance of promoted (8%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).
Sporting de Gijón has the most likely position - 5 (6.29%), has project points - 61, has currently - 5, has a small chance of relegated (8%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (24%), has a small chance of promoted (15%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).
This event has quality34, small importance25, small match rating29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 2.
Recent matches Ponferradina is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Sporting de Gijón is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recently Ponferradina have a series of guest games.
In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
Last 17 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 21-21.
Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-7.
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