Match Info

Date: 15 August 2022, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova (Cartagena)

Referee: Toca Lopez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport


	Cartagena		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.5	Watch
	2	3.2	3.3
	2.05	3.3	3.7
	2.05	3.4	3.35
	2.16	3.43	3.66
				Watch
	2.08	3.32	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.14)	3.36 ↑ (3.18)	3.52 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cartagena
45.3%

Draw
28%

Ponferradina
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

29%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cartagena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cartagena than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	28.2%	17.9%

Cartagena - Ponferradina Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Cartagena will win (votes: 21 - 53.8%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 7 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 28.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cartagena: 38.2% – 69.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Cartagena has the most likely position - 13 (5.22%), has project points - 57, has currently - 0, has a chance of relegated (16%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (18%), has a small chance of promoted (10%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 22 (6.54%), has project points - 52, has currently - 0, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has quality 32, small importance 27, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cartagena won 1.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Cartagena will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cartagena won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Cartagena won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cartagena
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Tenerife - Cartagena	1:1 ✺
05.08.22	Almería - Cartagena	1:0 ✺
30.07.22	Cartagena - Elche	2:0 ✺
26.07.22	Ibiza - Cartagena	1:1 ✺
23.07.22	Cartagena - Sporting de Gijón	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLWTL
- SD Ponferradina
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Burgos - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
03.08.22	Deportivo A Coruña - Ponferradina	7:1 ✺
30.07.22	Sporting de Gijón - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
28.07.22	Ponferradina - Valladolid	1:2 ✺
24.07.22	Ponferradina - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
01.05.22	Ponferradina - Cartagena	4:2
30.10.21	Cartagena - Ponferradina	0:1
12.03.21	Cartagena - Ponferradina	1:1
11.10.20	Ponferradina - Cartagena	0:2
Spanish Segunda Division B Losers Play Offs
15.06.19	Ponferradina - Cartagena	1:0
09.06.19	Cartagena - Ponferradina	1:2

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