Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 36

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Referee: Frances R. (Esp)


	Burgos		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	4.2	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.9
	2.14	2.95	3.9
	2.14	2.96	4.38
	2.13	2.83	4.25	Watch
	2.12	2.95	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (2.08)	2.92 ↓ (2.95)	4.11 ↑ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos
44.7%

Draw
32.3%

Ponferradina
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

31.6%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

31.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	36.4%	9.1%

Burgos - Ponferradina Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Burgos will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 2 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burgos: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 8 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Burgos has the most likely position - 8 (19.54%), project points - 58, currently - 49, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), a very small chance of promoted (2%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (48.05%), project points - 42, currently - 35, a good chance of relegated (89%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 27, small importance 24, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Burgos won 3.

Burgos is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ponferradina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Burgos will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Burgos won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Burgos won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
09.04.23	Huesca - Burgos	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Burgos - Racing Santander	2:1 ✺
25.03.23	Ibiza - Burgos	2:0 ✺
19.03.23	Burgos - Sporting de Gijón	0:0 ✺
11.03.23	Eibar - Burgos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LWLTL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
09.04.23	Ponferradina - Leganés	0:1 ✺
02.04.23	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
26.03.23	Ponferradina - Mirandés	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Ponferradina - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Granada - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
05.12.22	Ponferradina - Burgos	1:2
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Burgos - Ponferradina	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
07.05.22	Ponferradina - Burgos	3:1
14.11.21	Burgos - Ponferradina	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
13.01.19	Burgos - Ponferradina	2:0
25.08.18	Ponferradina - Burgos	2:0
16.04.17	Ponferradina - Burgos	4:2

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