Match Info

Cymru South - Round 7

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday


	Pontardawe Town		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	2.70	3.60	2.10
	2.83	3.96	2.16	Watch
	2.79	3.68	2.12
	2.70	3.65	2.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.83)	3.72 ↓ (3.8)	2.12 (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontardawe Town
32.9%

Draw
24.3%

Caerau Ely
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

24.2%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

23.5%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontardawe Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Caerau Ely has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontardawe Town than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Pontardawe Town - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 10).

Pontardawe is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Caerau has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Caerau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pontardawe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 2:4.5).

Including home match between the teams, Pontardawe won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
11	Pontardawe	8	3	0	5	14:16	-2	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontardawe Town
Welsh Cymru South
28.08.26	Aberystwyth Town - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Afan Lido - Pontardawe Town	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Pontardawe Town - Newport City	0:4 ✺
07.08.26	Pontypridd United - Pontardawe Town	3:2 ✺
01.08.26	Pontardawe Town - Caerphilly Athletic	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLW
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
31.08.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:2 ✺
28.08.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	3:1 ✺
21.08.26	Caerau Ely - Pure Swansea	1:5 ✺
14.08.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerau Ely	2:4 ✺
07.08.26	Caerau Ely - Ynyshir Albions	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
13.04.24	Caerau Ely - Pontardawe Town	3:1
27.01.24	Pontardawe Town - Caerau Ely	3:6

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