Match Info

Serie B - Round 24

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ponte Preta		Avaí

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.71	Watch
	4.33	3.30	1.77
	4.1	3.2	1.88	Watch
	5.34	3.45	1.82
	4.81	3.45	1.77	Watch
	5.2	3.35	1.73
	4.79	3.28	1.79	Watch
	4.6	3.4	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↑ (2.98)	3.38 ↑ (3.16)	1.78 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
19.7%

Draw
27.7%

Avaí
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

29.6%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

29.6%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponte Preta's form might have worsened.

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Avaí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Avaí, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

Ponte Preta - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Avaí will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avaí: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Avaí (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 4. Diego M. L. 3. Lucas Cunha (C) 44. Gustavo Almeida 2. Julio 8. Andre Lima 16. Leo Gomes 13. Souza M. 7. Baianinho 18. David da Hora 21. Brandao	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 38. Jefferson Maciel 3. Allyson (C) 40. Reynaldo 22. Joao Vitor 8. Luiz Henrique 25. Paulo Vitor 56. William 10. Jean Lucas 43. Thayllon 11. Vizeu F.
Substitutes
17. Cicala G. 19. Coelho C. 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 9. Joao Damiao 6. Juan Rodrigues 11. Murilo 32. Vinicius C.	36. Douglas Teixeira 23. Gabriel Cipriano 15. Guilherme Aquino 7. Leo Chu 9. Leo Gamalho 21. Otavio Passos (G) 5. Romildo Del Piage 95. Wenderson 77. Ze Ricardo
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', William ↓, Douglas Teixeira ↑,
31', Reynaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', 0 - 1, Jean Lucas ⚽, Joao Vitor (A),
51', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
56', David da Hora ↓, Joao Damiao ↑,
60', Souza M. ↓, Juan Rodrigues ↑,
66', Vizeu F. 🟨,
68', Thayllon 🟨,
71', Thayllon ↓, Leo Chu ↑,
71', Luiz Henrique ↓, Romildo Del Piage ↑,
75', Julio ↓, Murilo ↑,
81', Douglas Teixeira 🟨,
84', Vizeu F. ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
84', Jean Lucas ↓, Wenderson ↑,
90', 0 - 2, Wenderson ⚽, Leo Chu (A),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 3.

Ponte Preta is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Avaí has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Avaí may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Avaí is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Muscle Injury) Diego Porfirio (Injury) Elvis (Knee Injury) Jonathan Cafu (Inactive) Kevyson (Knee Injury) Miguel Morais (Yellow Cards) Palacios S. (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo Souza (Inactive)

There will not play in Avaí: Daniel Penha (Inactive) Juan Rocha (Inactive) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Murilo (Injury) Thalys (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:14. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
07.08.26	Ceará - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Ponte Preta - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
22.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLTL
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
19.08.26	Avaí - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Avaí	1:2 ✺
11.08.26	Avaí - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
28.07.26	Juventude - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.07.26	Avaí - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.04.26	Avaí - Ponte Preta	1:2
22.11.24	Avaí - Ponte Preta	2:1
04.08.24	Ponte Preta - Avaí	1:0
04.11.23	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:1
08.07.23	Avaí - Ponte Preta	0:1
05.10.21	Avaí - Ponte Preta	1:1
06.07.21	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:0

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