Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 8 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Oliveira W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ponte Preta		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	6.25	3.6	1.53	Watch
	1.61	3.50	1.00
	5.9	3.65	1.58
	6.6	3.72	1.62
	6.15	3.67	1.59	Watch
	6.55	3.65	1.58
	6.28	3.62	1.58	Watch
	6	3.65	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.67 ↑ (3.85)	3.63 ↑ (3.05)	1.51 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
15.8%

Draw
24.7%

Criciúma
59.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.3%

28.2%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

27.3%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponte Preta's form might have worsened.

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Criciúma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Criciúma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	21.1%	68.4%

Ponte Preta - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Criciúma will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Criciúma (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Ponte Preta (4.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Criciúma (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Criciúma (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guilherme Viana (G) 3. Lucas Cunha 44. Marcio Silva 23. Palacios S. 7. Diego Tavares 8. Andre Lima 14. Danilo Barcelos (C) 32. Kevyson 10. Elvis 18. David da Hora 21. Brandao	32. Airton (G) 34. Bruno Alves 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 97. Willean Lepo 5. Eduardo 8. Gui Lobo 22. Marcelo Hermes 91. Otero R. 13. Waguininho 7. Fellipe Mateus
Substitutes
26. Baianinho 4. Diego M. L. 13. Diego Porfirio 15. Gustavo Almeida 35. Gustavo Telles 19. Jonathan Cafu 6. Juan Rodrigues 17. Miguel Morais 90. Rodriguinho 30. Vinicius Ferrari (G)	1. Alisson (G) 88. Caue Santos 77. Diego Goncalves 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 70. Pedro Santos (G) 11. Romarinho 43. Ruan Carvalho 50. Thiaguinho
Coaches
Marcio Zanardi	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Marcelo Hermes ⚽, Willean Lepo (A),
18', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Diego Tavares ↓, Diego Porfirio ↑,
46', Andre Lima ↓, Baianinho ↑,
46', David da Hora ↓, Juan Rodrigues ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Baianinho ⚽,
67', Otero R. ↓, Jhonata Robert ↑,
67', Waguininho ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
71', Danilo Barcelos 🟨,
81', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Romarinho ↑,
83', Brandao ↓, Miguel Morais ↑,
88', Willean Lepo 🟨,
89', Eduardo ↓, Caue Santos ↑,
90', Gui Lobo ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Marcelo Hermes ⚽, Luciano Castan (A),
90+5', Marcio Silva 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 0.

Ponte Preta has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Criciúma is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Criciúma has had a series of home games.

In this match, Criciúma is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Willian Pottker (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Cesar Martins (Yellow Cards) Octavio Henrique (Muscle Injury) Yuri Tanque (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Murilo (Injury) Rodrigo Souza (Injury)

There are questionable in Criciúma: Heitor Roca (Inactive)

We predict that Criciúma will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 49.45%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
02.07.26	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Juventude - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
09.06.26	Ponte Preta - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
04.07.26	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
23.06.26	América Mineiro - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1 ✺
06.06.26	Criciúma - Londrina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
02.08.23	Criciúma - Ponte Preta	2:1
21.04.23	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:2
28.10.22	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:1
15.07.22	Criciúma - Ponte Preta	1:1
Copa do Brasil
08.04.21	Criciúma - Ponte Preta	2:1 penalties
Brazilian Serie B
03.09.19	Criciúma - Ponte Preta	0:0
02.05.19	Ponte Preta - Criciúma	1:1

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