Match Info

Paulista - Round 5

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Nunes G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Ponte Preta		EC Noroeste

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.8	2.4	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.9
	2.98	2.92	2.48	Watch
	3.22	2.99	2.47
	3	2.84	2.64	Watch
	3	2.75	2.4
	3.23	2.92	2.5	Watch
	3.14	3	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.2)	2.93 ↓ (3.1)	2.66 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
32%

Draw
32.3%

EC Noroeste
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

29.9%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponte Preta's form might have worsened.

EC Noroeste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting EC Noroeste's recent form is better than expected.

Ponte Preta - EC Noroeste Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Noroeste (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Noroeste (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (C) 28. Pacheco 3. Lucas Cunha 33. David Braz 20. Jean Carlos 5. Rodrigo Souza 38. Tarik 11. Vitor Pernambuco 10. Cristiano 70. Lucas Emanuel 7. Diego Tavares	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 44. Maycon 5. Pedro Carrerette 3. Carlinhos (C) 2. Jhonny 88. Denner 15. Taua 12. Sanchez 27. Diego Mathias 9. Carlao 11. Marlyson
Substitutes
18. Gustavo Almeida 35. Gustavo Telles 99. Joao Damiao 27. Juan Rodrigues 2. Julio 17. Kaio Ganga 15. Machado R. 8. Miguel Morais 80. Pedrinho 77. Pedroso L. 4. Rabello 1. Thiago Coelho (G)	70. Cristiano 23. Igor 94. Jeferson Romario (G) 30. Leocovick 19. Leo Tocantins 4. Lucas Cunha 7. Pedro Felipe 18. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 33. Ronaldo Alves 10. Thiago Lopes 20. Wesley Santos
Coaches
Fernandes M.	Guilherme Alves

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', Maycon ↓, Ronaldo Alves ↑,
11', 0 - 1, Denner ⚽, Pedro Carrerette (A),
18', 1 - 1, Cristiano ⚽, Vitor Pernambuco (A),
34', 2 - 1, Pacheco ⚽, Vitor Pernambuco (A),
42', 2 - 2, Carlao ⚽, Sanchez (A),
45+3', Lucas Emanuel 🟨,
45+5', Taua 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jean Carlos ↓, Gustavo Almeida ↑,
58', Taua ↓, Cristiano ↑,
58', Marlyson ↓, Pedro Felipe ↑,
58', Rodrigo Souza ↓, Gustavo Telles ↑,
59', Lucas Emanuel ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
71', Cristiano 🟨,
74', Gustavo Almeida ↓, Julio ↑,
82', Sanchez ↓, Leocovick ↑,
82', Denner ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
83', Diego Tavares ↓, Kaio Ganga ↑,
88', David Braz 🟨,
90', Leocovick 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A2 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Danilo Barcelos (Inactive) Joao Gabriel (Injury)

There will not play in Noroeste: PH (Knee Injury) Peixoto (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Diego M. L. (Inactive) Elvis (Inactive) Saimon (Inactive)

There are questionable in Noroeste: Leo Sena (Injury) Robertinho (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ponte Preta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Capivariano - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Ponte Preta - Velo Clube	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Corinthians - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
25.10.25	Ponte Preta - Londrina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW
- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.26	EC Noroeste - Capivariano	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	São Bernardo - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Botafogo SP - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	EC Noroeste - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
29.08.25	União São João - EC Noroeste	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
05.02.25	EC Noroeste - Ponte Preta	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
11.03.23	Ponte Preta - EC Noroeste	2:0

Upcoming Matches