Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 28

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ettore Mannucci (Pontedera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Pontedera		Ascoli

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.5	3.65	1.58	Watch
	6.07	3.65	1.56
	5.76	3.77	1.54	Watch
	5	3.3	1.57
	5.8	3.52	1.55	Watch
	6	3.6	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.69 ↑ (5.21)	3.58 ↑ (3.43)	1.56 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontedera
16%

Draw
25.5%

Ascoli
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

26.6%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.8%

25.4%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Pontedera - Ascoli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ascoli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ascoli will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Saracco U. (G) 3. Leo D. 94. Piana L. 13. Sapola M. 23. Cerretti C. 8. Faggi F. 7. Emmanuello S. 17. Vitali P. 25. Nabian H. 28. Raychev A. 16. Buffon L.	1. Vitale S. (G) 2. Pagliai G. 30. Curado M. 3. Nicoletti M. 17. Guiebre A. 4. Damiani S. 62. Milanese T. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 14. Galuppini F. 15. D'Uffizi S. 35. Gori G.
Substitutes
32. Beghetto L. 22. Biagini V. (G) 80. Caponi A. 33. Fancelli A. 2. Giacomelli R. 10. Kabashi E. 21. Lugano T. 14. Manfredonia M. 27. Mbambi J. 18. Paolieri L. 20. Pietrelli R. 30. Strada N. (G) 26. Wagner G. 45. Yeboah P.	23. Alagna M. 24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) 41. Brzan R. (G) 9. Chakir M. A. 18. Corazza S. 19. Menna D. 6. Ndoj E. 11. Oviszach E. 29. Palazzino F. 33. Rizzo N. 7. Silipo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Nicoletti M. ⚽,
14', Leo D. 🟨,
24', Guiebre A. 🟨,
45+3', Faggi F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Buffon L. ↓, Yeboah P. ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Damiani S. ⚽,
54', Nabian H. ↓, Kabashi E. ↑,
54', Emmanuello S. ↓, Caponi A. ↑,
54', Raychev A. ↓, Mbambi J. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Yeboah P. ⚽,
69', Piana L. 🟨,
72', 1 - 3, D'Uffizi S. ⚽,
76', D'Uffizi S. ↓, Oviszach E. ↑,
77', Milanese T. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
84', (Penalty Awarded),
85', Galuppini F. ↓, Silipo A. ↑,
85', Damiani S. ↓, Bando A. ↑,
90', Curado M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 0.

Pontedera is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ascoli is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Ascoli is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontedera won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
15.02.26	Pontedera - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Forlì - Pontedera	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Pontedera - Ternana	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Campobasso - Pontedera	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Pontedera - Pineto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLTLT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
15.02.26	Bra - Ascoli	1:3 ✺
12.02.26	Ascoli - Sassari Torres	2:2 ✺
08.02.26	Pineto - Ascoli	1:3 ✺
30.01.26	Ascoli - Livorno	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Ascoli - Perugia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
12.10.25	Ascoli - Pontedera	5:0
22.03.25	Pontedera - Ascoli	1:1
10.11.24	Ascoli - Pontedera	1:1
18.03.15	Pontedera - Ascoli	0:0
02.11.14	Ascoli - Pontedera	1:0
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
23.03.14	Pontedera - Ascoli	5:0
16.11.13	Ascoli - Pontedera	2:0

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