Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 23

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Pasarón (Pontevedra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Pontevedra		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.25	3.6
	2	3.2	3.55
	2.02	3.19	3.79
	2.12	3.34	3.35	Watch
	1.95	3	3.5
	1.98	3.37	3.73
	1.88	3.25	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.89)	3.23 ↓ (3.45)	3.6 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontevedra
46.2%

Draw
28.3%

Real Madrid Castilla
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

26.9%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

26.7%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontevedra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontevedra (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Real Madrid Castilla (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontevedra (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Real Madrid Castilla (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Marqueta R. (G) 4. Bosch M. 5. Perez A. 23. Montoro A. 11. Cuesta M. 16. Vidorreta A. 10. Pino Y. 8. Abelenda B. 21. Gomez D. 20. Gil A. 22. Comparada Gonzalez A.	1. Fran (G) 17. Fortea J. 15. Martinez J. 4. Rivas M. 3. Valdepenas V. 8. Angel M. 6. Perea C. 16. Pitarch T. 7. Yanez D. 9. Zuniga L. 10. Palacios C.
Substitutes
2. Eimil V. 3. Exposito A. 19. Garay B. 18. Lopez R. 17. Macias L. 14. Resende J. 6. Ribeiro A. 1. Sousa E. (G)	21. Aguado D. 49. Arnuncio A. 23. Fati L. 20. Fortuny P. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 39. Leiva A. 30. Mesonero D. 32. Navascues L. 13. Sunico G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Pitarch T. 🟨,
18', Perea C. 🟨,
40', Bosch M. 🟨,
45', Ribeiro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Comparada Gonzalez A. ↓, Resende J. ↑,
54', Pitarch T. ↓, Aguado D. ↑,
62', Zuniga L. ↓, Arnuncio A. ↑,
63', Yanez D. ↓, Fortuny P. ↑,
68', 🟨,
68', Gil A. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
72', 🟨,
80', Abelenda B. ↓, Macias L. ↑,
82', Valdepenas V. ↓, Navascues L. ↑,
82', Palacios C. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
90+10', 🟨,
90+11', Resende J. 🟨,
90+11', Pino Y. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 1.

Pontevedra is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pontevedra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Pontevedra could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontevedra won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:3. (average 2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Pontevedra	6	2	2	2	8:8	0	8

Last Results with these Odds

Pontevedra - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.11%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
31.01.26	Talavera de la Reina - Pontevedra	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	Mérida AD - Pontevedra	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Pontevedra - Arenteiro	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Pontevedra - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTTWW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Tenerife - Real Madrid Castilla	4:2 ✺
18.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla	4:1 ✺
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0
29.01.23	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1
06.11.22	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
01.03.20	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	4:0
12.10.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	2:1
Club Friendly
01.08.19	Pontevedra - Real Madrid Castilla	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
19.05.19	Real Madrid Castilla - Pontevedra	0:1

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