Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Arenas Club de Getxo		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.2	2.4
	2.78	3.1	2.45
	2.78	3.16	2.54	Watch
	2.75	2.8	2.45
	2.75	3	2.42
	2.8	2.9	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.59)	3.03 ↓ (3.3)	2.45 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arenas Club de Getxo
33%

Draw
30%

Real Madrid Castilla
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.2%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

28.4%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arenas Club de Getxo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arenas Club de Getxo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pena A. (G) 21. Sillero J. 19. Mutilva C. 5. Garcia P. 24. Boriko S. 22. Mattheus C. 12. Lartitegi J. 16. Verde A. 10. Hidalgo A. 15. Diocou B. 2. Vizcay T.	43. Mestre S. (G) 21. Aguado D. 15. Martinez J. 23. Fati L. 32. Navascues L. 8. Angel M. (C) 14. Cestero Sancho J. 6. Perea C. 20. Duran P. 7. Yanez D. 39. Leiva A.
Substitutes
4. Alvarez P. 1. Gastesi O. (G) 3. Herranz Jimenez G. 18. Honrado A. 25. Jarauta J. (G) 17. Rodriguez J. L. 23. Sustatxa A. 11. Troncho A. 9. Vazquez A. 20. Zabaleta E.	33. Castrelo G. 17. Fortea J. 11. Iglesias Lois B. 30. Mesonero D. 29. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 4. Rivas M. 3. Valdepenas V. 9. Zuniga L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Mattheus C. ⚽,
29', 2 - 0, Diocou B. ⚽,
32', 3 - 0, Garcia P. ⚽,
42', 3 - 1, Yanez D. ⚽,
45+1', 4 - 1, Vizcay T. ⚽,
45+2', Verde A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Sillero J. ↓, Alvarez P. ↑,
60', Martinez J. 🟨,
60', Boriko S. 🟨,
60', 🟨,
65', Vizcay T. ↓, Vazquez A. ↑,
82', Vazquez A. 🟨,
83', Diocou B. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

Recent performances by Arenas have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Real Madrid Castilla is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arenas won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arenas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Arenas Getxo	6	0	2	4	4:14	-10	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arenas Club de Getxo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Zamora - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Pontevedra - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Athletic Bilbao B	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Ponferradina - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LLLWW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
04.01.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Celta de Vigo B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Real Madrid Castilla - CD Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Zamora - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
08.04.17	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:3
12.11.16	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1
27.02.16	Arenas Club de Getxo - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1
10.10.15	Real Madrid Castilla - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0

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