Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Pasarón (Pontevedra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Pontevedra		Ferrol

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	2.7
	2.3	2.9	2.85
	2.45	2.92	2.98
	2.51	2.9	3.06	Watch
	2.4	2.7	2.9
	2.44	2.85	2.95
	2.4	2.85	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.24)	2.86 ↓ (3.09)	2.91 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontevedra
37.2%

Draw
31.6%

Ferrol
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

30.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

29.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontevedra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Ferrol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontevedra than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pontevedra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Pontevedra - Ferrol Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontevedra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Pontevedra (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontevedra (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Marqueta R. (G) 16. Vidorreta A. 4. Bosch M. 6. Ribeiro A. 11. Cuesta M. 24. Rodriguez T. 23. Montoro A. 10. Pino Y. 17. Macias L. 22. Comparada Gonzalez A. 7. Gonzalez A. (C)	1. Parera P. M. (G) 2. Miguel 3. Pujol E. 15. Zalaya A. 17. Ramon A. 6. Gelardo A. 8. Gorostidi A. 24. Garcia A. 7. Alvaro J. 20. Gimenez A. (C) 11. Dacosta R.
Substitutes
8. Abelenda B. 28. Canosa Toscano S. 3. Exposito A. 19. Garay B. 27. Marques D. 32. Mendez I. 33. Outeirino I. 14. Resende J. 1. Sousa E. (G)	21. Carballo D. 12. Chema 18. Concha D. 25. Diaz L. (G) 9. Escobar A. 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 16. Garcia S. 22. Mardones A. 5. Noriega J. 10. Pascu

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Ribeiro A. ⚽,
22', Miguel 🟨,
41', Comparada Gonzalez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gonzalez A. ↓, Resende J. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Zalaya A. ⚽,
59', Garcia A. 🟨,
65', Macias L. ↓, Garay B. ↑,
72', Gorostidi A. ↓, Pascu ↑,
72', Alvaro J. ↓, Noriega J. ↑,
72', Gimenez A. ↓, Escobar A. ↑,
72', Dacosta R. ↓, Concha D. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Resende J. ⚽,
89', Pujol E. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 0.

Pontevedra is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ferrol has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Pontevedra won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:26. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontevedra won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.8:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10
11	Pontevedra	6	2	2	2	8:8	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontevedra CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Barakaldo - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pontevedra - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Celta de Vigo B - Pontevedra	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Pontevedra - Eibar	0:3 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Pontevedra - CD Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWLT
- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.12.25	Real Avilés - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Ferrol - Unionistas de Salamanca	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Cacereño - Ferrol	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Ferrol - Huesca	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ferrol - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
29.07.23	Pontevedra - Ferrol	1:5
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.02.23	Ferrol - Pontevedra	2:0
04.12.22	Pontevedra - Ferrol	0:2
Club Friendly
08.08.21	Pontevedra - Ferrol	1:3
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
17.01.21	Pontevedra - Ferrol	0:1
18.10.20	Ferrol - Pontevedra	2:3
19.01.20	Pontevedra - Ferrol	0:0

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