Match Info

WALES: CYMRU PREMIER - ROUND 7

Date: 16 September 2023, Saturday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)

Referee: Owen T. (Wal)


	Pontypridd United		Bala Town

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.16
	3.2	3.2	2.1
	3.22	3.46	2.1
	3.15	3.4	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (4.05)	3.41 ↓ (3.56)	2.12 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
29.1%

Draw
27.2%

Bala Town
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

26%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

25.7%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pontypridd United's performance.

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bala Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pontypridd United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bala Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Pontypridd United - Bala Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pontypridd will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Bala Town will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 2. Cummings L. 4. Davies K. (C) 30. Hutson C. 35. Karadogan J. 6. Knott J. 5. Margetson B. 22. Pritchard O. 14. Rees K. 8. Shephard C. 7. Williams D.	1. Absalom K. (G) 12. Abadaki O. 28. Arsan N. 20. Edwards A. 24. Harrison K. 10. Malkin J. 22. Mendes P. 2. Mitter A. 9. Newell G. 5. Roberts I. 23. White R. (C)
Substitutes
25. Challenger T. 17. Hunt J. 26. Lewis A. 1. Morris A. (G) 19. Young O.	8. Burke N. 19. Knight T. 15. Lloyd H. (G) 3. Nelson J. 17. Rogers R. 14. Ukek J. 7. Wall L.
Coaches
Stokes A.	Caton C.

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 7 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Pontypridd could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Bala Town have a series of home games.

Bala Town will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pontypridd won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Pontypridd won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru Premier
08.09.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Pontypridd United - Barry Town United	1:0 ✺
29.08.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
25.08.23	Pontypridd United - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
19.08.23	Pontypridd United - The New Saints	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWTL
- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.23	Bala Town - The New Saints	0:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.09.23	Bala Town - Queens Park	0:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
02.09.23	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	2:1 ✺
29.08.23	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	1:1 ✺
25.08.23	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh FA Cup
14.01.23	Bala Town - Pontypridd United	2:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.01.23	Bala Town - Pontypridd United	3:0
03.01.23	Pontypridd United - Bala Town	2:1
Welsh FA Cup
25.09.21	Bala Town - Pontypridd United	5:0

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