Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 31

Date: 13 April 2024, Saturday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)

Referee: McInch A. (Wal)


	Pontypridd United		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	4.4	3.5	1.65
	5	3.6	1.65	Watch
	5.18	3.71	1.7
	5.18	3.71	1.66
	4.8	3.5	1.65
	5.07	3.64	1.65
	4.7	3.85	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.9 ↑ (4.08)	3.64 ↑ (3.35)	1.66 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
18.9%

Draw
25.4%

Pen-y-Bont
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

27.5%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

26.9%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pen-y-Bont's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Pontypridd United - Pen y Bont Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 9. Ahmun B. 27. Bevan R. 2. Cummings L. 4. Davies K. 29. Green C. 20. Jones O. 5. Margetson B. 22. Pritchard O. 3. Vaughan E. 16. Wright J.	1. Przybek A. (G) 16. Borge B. 6. Davies M. 4. Evans A. 5. Jefferies D. 18. Kircough G. 2. Little M. 14. McFayden L. 20. Reynolds R. 11. Richards E. 9. Venables C.
Substitutes
21. Carty D. 11. Gullick L. 35. Karadogan J. 10. Lewis K. 36. Mace C. 1. Morris A. (G) 19. Young O.	17. Brown J. 12. Griffiths D. 26. Griffiths R. 23. Harris A. (G) 10. Jones H. 55. Phillips I. 15. Ware L.
Coaches
Allen G.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Kircough G. ⚽,
21', 0 - 2, Venables C. ⚽,
40', Evans A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Davies K. 🟨,
51', McFayden L. 🟨,
57', Davies M. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
60', Davies K. ↓, Mace C. ↑,
60', Pritchard O. ↓, Karadogan J. ↑,
60', Ahmun B. ↓, Young O. ↑,
66', 0 - 3, Venables C. ⚽,
70', Evans A. ↓, Griffiths D. ↑,
70', McFayden L. ↓, Jones H. ↑,
72', Jones O. ↓, Carty D. ↑,
75', Little M. ↓, Ware L. ↑,
81', Richards E. ↓, Phillips I. ↑,
84', Wright J. 🟨,
88', Green C. ↓, Gullick L. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pontypridd won 1.

Recent matches Pontypridd is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Pen-y-Bont is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Pen-y-Bont could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Pen-y-Bont is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Pontypridd won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Pontypridd won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru Premier
09.04.24	Pontypridd United - Aberystwyth Town	0:0 ✺
06.04.24	Colwyn Bay - Pontypridd United	1:0 ✺
29.03.24	Pontypridd United - Haverfordwest County	0:1 ✺
16.03.24	Pontypridd United - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
02.03.24	Pen-y-Bont - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLLTW
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.04.24	Aberystwyth Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:3 ✺
29.03.24	Barry Town United - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
16.03.24	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	5:0 ✺
08.03.24	Haverfordwest County - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
02.03.24	Pen-y-Bont - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
02.03.24	Pen-y-Bont - Pontypridd United	0:1
31.12.23	Pen-y-Bont - Pontypridd United	1:0
25.08.23	Pontypridd United - Pen-y-Bont	0:0
23.12.22	Pontypridd United - Pen-y-Bont	0:1
27.09.22	Pen-y-Bont - Pontypridd United	1:1
Welsh Division 1
19.12.18	Pontypridd United - Pen-y-Bont	0:3

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