Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Maes Tegid (Bala)


	Bala Town		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	4.45	3.75	1.62
	4.54	3.39	1.69
	24.28	25.00	1.00	Watch
	4.71	3.78	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.5 ↑ (4.48)	8.98 ↑ (3.72)	1.48 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bala Town
11.8%

Draw
12.5%

Gap Connahs Quay
75.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

24.4%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

23.5%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bala Town's form might have worsened.

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gap Connahs Quay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bala Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-18.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 2.

Recent form of Bala Town has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Connahs Quay is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bala Town may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Connahs Quay is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bala Town won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Gap Connahs Quay - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 55.39%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
10.10.25	Haverfordwest County - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:3 ✺
04.10.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Bala Town - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Colwyn Bay - Bala Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLLLW
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
07.10.25	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:3 ✺
04.10.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Llanelli	3:0 ✺
27.09.25	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
07.10.25	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:3
02.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	1:3
17.01.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	0:2
15.10.24	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	0:0
12.04.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	0:0
Welsh FA Cup
23.03.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	1:0
Welsh Cymru Premier
01.03.24	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0

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