Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 40

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday


	Poole Town		Swindon Supermarine

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	2.65
	2.13	3.8	2.75
	2.17	4.23	2.67
	2.2	4.07	2.74
	2.2	3.6	2.73
	2.13	3.8	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.17)	3.85 ↑ (3.78)	2.72 ↑ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poole Town
42.5%

Draw
23.8%

Swindon Supermarine
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

24.2%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

23.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poole Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

The chances for Swindon Supermarine have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poole Town than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Supermarine than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Poole Town - Swindon Supermarine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Campbell K. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', 2 - 0, Campbell K. ⚽,
75', 3 - 0, Saied S. ⚽,
90', 4 - 0, Saied S. ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 17 and 16).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Poole won 2.

Recent matches Poole is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Swindon Supermarine is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Poole won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 21:19 (average 1.8:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Poole won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Poole Town - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.1%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poole Town
English Southern League South Division
12.04.25	Merthyr Town - Poole Town	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Poole Town - Marlow	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Plymouth Parkway - Poole Town	3:1 ✺
22.03.25	Poole Town - Sholing	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Walton & Hersham - Poole Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 WWLWL
- Swindon Supermarine
English Southern League South Division
12.04.25	Swindon Supermarine - Frome Town	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Havant & Waterlooville - Swindon Supermarine	3:2 ✺
29.03.25	Swindon Supermarine - Taunton Town	1:2 ✺
22.03.25	Tiverton Town - Swindon Supermarine	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Swindon Supermarine - Wimborne Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
07.09.24	Swindon Supermarine - Poole Town	5:0
English FA Cup
31.08.24	Swindon Supermarine - Poole Town	1:1
English Southern League South Division
23.01.24	Poole Town - Swindon Supermarine	1:0
05.08.23	Swindon Supermarine - Poole Town	2:7
19.04.23	Swindon Supermarine - Poole Town	2:1
07.02.23	Poole Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:2
29.01.22	Poole Town - Swindon Supermarine	2:1

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