Match Info

Date: 18 April 2022, Monday


	Pordenone		Benevento

	1	X	2
	7	3.75	1.53	Watch
	5.75	3.9	1.55
	6.5	3.65	1.55
	5.8	3.8	1.54
	7.14	3.98	1.56
	5.8	3.7	1.6
	5.95	4.15	1.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.28 ↑ (3.2)	3.85 ↑ (3.24)	1.56 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pordenone
15%

Draw
24.5%

Benevento
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

28.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

28.1%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pordenone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pordenone's form might have worsened.

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benevento's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pordenone than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pordenone, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (-17.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Benevento, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.4%	11.5%	82.1%

Pordenone - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: Benevento will win (64 of 78 users predict this - 82.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.53% – 90.57%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Pordenone has the most likely position - 20 (91.88%), has project points - 21, has currently - 17, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.

Benevento has the most likely position - 4 (23.52%), has project points - 67, has currently - 60, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of prom. playoffs (85%), has a chance of promoted (38%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

This event has small quality 26, small importance 28, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Pordenone is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Benevento is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Benevento could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Benevento is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Pordenone won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Pordenone won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pordenone Calcio
Italian Serie B
09.04.22	Alessandria - Pordenone	2:0 ✺
05.04.22	Pordenone - Frosinone	2:0 ✺
02.04.22	Ascoli - Pordenone	1:0 ✺
20.03.22	Pordenone - Brescia	1:1 ✺
16.03.22	Cremonese - Pordenone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWLTL
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
14.04.22	Nuova Cosenza - Benevento	1:0 ✺
10.04.22	Benevento - Vicenza Virtus	1:0 ✺
05.04.22	Reggina - Benevento	0:3 ✺
02.04.22	Benevento - Pisa	5:1 ✺
19.03.22	Frosinone - Benevento	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.12.21	Benevento - Pordenone	2:1
15.02.20	Benevento - Pordenone	2:1
24.09.19	Pordenone - Benevento	1:1

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