Match Info

League One - Round 25

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Marsden P. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.6
	2.78	3.25	2.48
	2.82	3.37	2.58
	2.82	3.41	2.41	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.76	3.22	2.5	Watch
	2.36	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.29)	3.29 ↓ (3.38)	2.57 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
35%

Draw
28.5%

Barnsley
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

27.1%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

26.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Port Vale's form might have worsened.

Barnsley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Port Vale, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	10%	50%

Port Vale - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Barnsley will win (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Port Vale: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Gauci J. (G) 27. Campbell E. 25. Humphreys C. 5. Hall C. 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 12. Walters R. 8. Garrity B. (C) 15. Gordon L. 19. Waine B. 33. Hall G. 9. Stockley J.	1. Goodman O. (G) 7. O'Keeffe C. 4. Roberts M. 32. Earl J. 15. O'Connell E. 30. Bland J. 45. Yoganathan V. 8. Phillips A. (C) 18. Banks S. 22. Kelly P. 9. Bradshaw T.
Substitutes
13. Amos B. (G) 11. Archer E. 10. Brown D. 18. Croasdale R. 3. Headley J. 35. Magloire T. 21. Sherif M.	19. Cleary R. 48. Connell L. 39. Farrell L. 51. Flavell K. (G) 14. Ogbeta N. 5. Shepherd J. 27. Watson T.
Coaches
Brady J.	Hourihane C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Humphreys C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Stockley J. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
62', Phillips A. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Bland J. ↓, Connell L. ↑,
68', Banks S. ↓, Cleary R. ↑,
71', Waine B. ↓, Sherif M. ↑,
74', Earl J. 🟨,
87', Walters R. ↓, Croasdale R. ↑,
87', Hall G. ↓, Archer E. ↑,
88', Gordon L. ↓, Headley J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Port Vale: Garrity B. (Inactive) Gordon L. (Injury) Lawrence-Gabriel J. (Inactive) Ojo F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Barnsley: Connell L. (Red Card) Gent G. (Injury) Ogbeta N. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Vale won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.9:1.7).

Outrights of English League One for now

Barnsley: 1.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	7:12	-5	8

Last Results with these Odds

Port Vale - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.09%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Barnsley - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.77%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
07.04.26	Port Vale - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Chelsea - Port Vale	7:0 ✺
English League One
28.03.26	Wycombe Wanderers - Port Vale	4:0 ✺
24.03.26	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLLLW
- Barnsley FC
English League One
11.04.26	Rotherham United - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
06.04.26	Barnsley - Plymouth Argyle	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Burton Albion - Barnsley	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Barnsley - Doncaster Rovers	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Barnsley - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Port Vale - Barnsley	5:0
English League One
27.09.25	Barnsley - Port Vale	0:2
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Port Vale - Barnsley	1:3
English League One
26.12.23	Port Vale - Barnsley	2:3
05.08.23	Barnsley - Port Vale	7:0
14.02.23	Port Vale - Barnsley	1:3
English EFL Trophy
23.11.22	Port Vale - Barnsley	2:1

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