Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 46

Date: 27 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Cambridge United

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.9
	2.45	3.25	2.75
	2.3	3.4	3
	2.54	3.22	2.88
	2.55	3.22	2.88
	2.38	3.3	2.88
	2.47	3.34	2.85	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (1.63)	3.27 ↓ (3.67)	2.86 ↓ (5.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
38.4%

Draw
28.7%

Cambridge United
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

25.5%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

24.2%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Port Vale's form might have worsened.

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cambridge United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+22.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Port Vale, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-17%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cambridge United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	13.3%	53.3%

Port Vale - Cambridge United Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Cambridge will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cambridge: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 27. Debrah J. 6. Smith N. (C) 17. Iacovitti A. 23. Shorrock J. 8. Garrity B. 10. Chislett E. 24. Walters R. 20. Weir J. 12. Ikpeazu U. 25. Dipepa B.	25. Mannion W. (G) 15. Okedina J. 6. Bennett R. 3. Andrew D. 2. Bennett L. 21. Kachunga E. 4. Digby P. 7. Brophy J. 26. Gibbons J. 23. Ahadme G. 27. Bonne M.
Substitutes
34. Agnero K. 28. Buah A. 7. Clark M. 13. Leutwiler J. (G) 5. Lopata K. 16. Lowe J. 14. Ojo F.	31. Chadwick L. (G) 24. Cousins J. 38. Hoddle G. 14. Kaikai S. 10. Lankester J. 19. May A. 9. Okenabirhie F.
Coaches
Moore D.	Monk G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Walters R. ↓, Ojo F. ↑,
29', Gibbons J. 🟨,
35', Weir J. 🟨,
37', Bennett L. 🟨,
39', Ahadme G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bonne M. ↓, Kaikai S. ↑,
70', Ikpeazu U. ↓, Lowe J. ↑,
74', Smith N. 🟨,
84', Chislett E. ↓, Clark M. ↑,
84', Weir J. ↓, Buah A. ↑,
86', Okedina J. 🟨,
90', Brophy J. ↓, May A. ↑,
90+3', Kachunga E. ↓, Hoddle G. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 19).

Port Vale is Relegated to League Two

Last 5 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 1.

Port Vale has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cambridge is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Port Vale could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
20.04.24	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
16.04.24	Port Vale - Wycombe Wanderers	1:2 ✺
13.04.24	Port Vale - Exeter City	2:4 ✺
10.04.24	Peterborough United - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
06.04.24	Wigan Athletic - Port Vale	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLT
- Cambridge United
English League One
23.04.24	Cambridge United - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
20.04.24	Cambridge United - Derby County	0:1 ✺
16.04.24	Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
13.04.24	Cambridge United - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Blackpool - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
23.09.23	Cambridge United - Port Vale	1:1
01.04.23	Port Vale - Cambridge United	0:2
22.10.22	Cambridge United - Port Vale	0:1
English League Two
27.02.21	Port Vale - Cambridge United	0:1
20.10.20	Cambridge United - Port Vale	3:1
31.08.19	Port Vale - Cambridge United	1:0
09.02.19	Cambridge United - Port Vale	1:0

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