Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 45

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Abbey Stadium (Cambridge)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)


	Cambridge United		Derby County

	1	X	2
	6	4	1.53
	5.75	4	1.55
	6	4	1.55
	6.41	4.09	1.55
	6.41	4.1	1.55
	5.8	4	1.53
	5.8	4.15	1.57	Watch
	6	4.1	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.02 ↑ (5.85)	4.06 ↓ (4.07)	1.54 ↑ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
15.6%

Draw
23.2%

Derby County
61.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.9%

22.9%

61.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

22.8%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Cambridge United - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cambridge will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mannion W. (G) 6. Bennett R. 16. Ibsen Rossi Z. 3. Andrew D. 2. Bennett L. 4. Digby P. 24. Cousins J. 26. Gibbons J. 21. Kachunga E. 27. Bonne M. 23. Ahadme G.	1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 2. Wilson K. 12. Smith K. 32. Adams E. 17. Sibley L. 16. Thompson L. 9. Collins J. 11. Mendez-Laing N. (C)
Substitutes
7. Brophy J. 13. Chadwick L. (G) 14. Kaikai S. 10. Lankester J. 19. May A. 15. Okedina J. 18. Taylor L.	7. Barkhuizen T. 8. Bird M. 27. Blackett-Taylor C. 4. Hourihane C. 31. Vickers J. (G) 10. Waghorn M. 14. Washington C.
Coaches
Monk G.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Sibley L. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Mendez-Laing N. ⚽, Sibley L. (A),
41', Andrew D. 🟨,
45', Adams E. 🟨,
45', Digby P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Bennett L. ↓, Brophy J. ↑,
69', Thompson L. ↓, Bird M. ↑,
72', Digby P. ↓, Lankester J. ↑,
76', Wilson K. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
80', Ahadme G. ↓, Taylor L. ↑,
80', Kachunga E. ↓, Kaikai S. ↑,
90+3', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Waghorn M. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 19 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Derby could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Cambridge won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Cambridge won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English League One
16.04.24	Bristol Rovers - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
13.04.24	Cambridge United - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Blackpool - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
01.04.24	Cambridge United - Wigan Athletic	3:1 ✺
29.03.24	Barnsley - Cambridge United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 LTLWW
- Derby County
English League One
13.04.24	Derby County - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
10.04.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Derby County	0:0 ✺
02.04.24	Portsmouth - Derby County	2:2 ✺
29.03.24	Derby County - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Northampton Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
30.09.23	Derby County - Cambridge United	0:0
30.12.22	Derby County - Cambridge United	1:0
01.10.22	Cambridge United - Derby County	0:2

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