Match Info

EFL Trophy - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Toughsheet Community Stadium (Bolton)

Referee: O'Connor J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Bolton Wanderers		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	1.55	4	4.75	Watch
	1.55	4.25	4.95	Watch
	1.53	4.38	5.38	Watch
	1.53	3.8	4.6
	1.55	3.95	4.96	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.69)	4.1 ↑ (3.68)	5 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolton Wanderers
59.3%

Draw
22.3%

Port Vale
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

24.9%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

24.1%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bolton Wanderers's performance.

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Bolton (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sharman-Lowe T. (G) 29. Christie C. 3. Forino-Joseph C. 5. Taylor R. 2. Dacres-Cogley J. 16. Morley A. 4. Simons X. 8. Sheehan J. 24. Forss M. 10. Dalby S. 11. Gale T.	13. Amos B. (G) 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 24. Kyle John 25. Humphreys C. 3. Headley J. 36. Faal M. 12. Walters R. 18. Croasdale R. (C) 14. Ojo F. 10. Brown D. 17. Paton R.
Substitutes
13. Broome N. (G) 48. Burstow M. 19. Cozier-Duberry A. 22. Dempsey K. 21. Erhahon E. 45. McAtee J. 18. Toal E.	2. Clark M. 15. Gordon L. 5. Hall C. 4. Heneghan B. 1. Marosi M. (G) 9. Stockley J. 19. Waine B.
Coaches
Schumacher S.	Brady J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Forss M. 🟨,
38', Forino-Joseph C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Headley J. ↓, Gordon L. ↑,
46', Lawrence-Gabriel J. ↓, Clark M. ↑,
46', Humphreys C. ↓, Heneghan B. ↑,
61', Faal M. ↓, Waine B. ↑,
63', Dalby S. ↓, Burstow M. ↑,
64', Sheehan J. ↓, Dempsey K. ↑,
64', Forss M. ↓, McAtee J. ↑,
68', Christie C. 🟨,
76', Dacres-Cogley J. ↓, Cozier-Duberry A. ↑,
81', Paton R. ↓, Hall G. ↑,
82', Simons X. ↓, Erhahon E. ↑,
90', 0 - 1, Waine B. ⚽,
90+4', Croasdale R. 🟨,
90+6', Gale T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 5.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Port Vale may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bolton is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Bolton won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 30:12. (average 2.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bolton won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:10. (average 2.7:1.4).

Outrights of English EFL Trophy for now

Port Vale: 0.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Bolton Wanderers - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 54.18%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
10.01.26	Peterborough United - Bolton Wanderers	3:1 ✺
04.01.26	Bolton Wanderers - Northampton Town	0:0 ✺
01.01.26	Doncaster Rovers - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Mansfield Town	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTTLW
- Port Vale
English FA Cup
09.01.26	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
English League One
01.01.26	Port Vale - Blackpool	5:1 ✺
29.12.25	Bradford City - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Huddersfield Town - Port Vale	5:0 ✺
20.12.25	Port Vale - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
08.11.25	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	4:0
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	0:3
English League One
20.04.24	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	2:0
English EFL Trophy
05.12.23	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	2:0
English League One
30.09.23	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
25.02.23	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	2:1
13.08.22	Port Vale - Bolton Wanderers	0:0

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