Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL PREMIERSHIP - RELEGATION GROUP

Date: 11 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Shamrock Park (Portadown)

Referee: Boyce E. (Nir)


	Portadown		Newry City

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	3.9
	1.7	3.75	3.95
	1.79	3.92	4.29
	1.8	3.4	4
	1.78	3.68	4.15	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.16)	3.64 ↑ (3.46)	4.02 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portadown
51.7%

Draw
25.4%

Newry City
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

26.9%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

26.5%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portadown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portadown's performance.

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newry City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portadown than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portadown that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newry City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Portadown - Newry City Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Portadown will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Newry City will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portadown won 3.

Recent matches Portadown is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newry City is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Portadown could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Portadown is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Portadown won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Portadown won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portadown
Northern Irish Premiership
07.04.23	Portadown - Ballymena United	1:0 ✺
01.04.23	Glentoran - Portadown	5:1 ✺
18.03.23	Portadown - Crusaders	2:2 ✺
11.03.23	Newry City - Portadown	3:4 ✺
04.03.23	Portadown - Carrick Rangers	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 WLTWL
- Newry City
Northern Irish Premiership
07.04.23	Carrick Rangers - Newry City	0:2 ✺
25.03.23	Newry City - Cliftonville	1:2 ✺
18.03.23	Linfield - Newry City	7:0 ✺
11.03.23	Newry City - Portadown	3:4 ✺
04.03.23	Newry City - Glenavon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
11.03.23	Newry City - Portadown	3:4
04.12.22	Newry City - Portadown	1:3
15.10.22	Portadown - Newry City	1:3
Northern Irish Championship
08.11.19	Newry City - Portadown	1:2
04.10.19	Portadown - Newry City	0:0
Northern Irish League Cup
30.10.18	Newry City - Portadown	1:2 penalties
Northern Irish Championship
20.04.18	Newry City - Portadown	0:0

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