Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL PREMIERSHIP - ROUND 31

Date: 11 March 2023, Saturday

Location: The Showgrounds (Newry)

Referee: Hassan D. (Nir)


	Newry City		Portadown

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	2.85
	2.18	3.5	2.7
	2.26	3.25	2.95
	2.39	3.65	2.84
	2.25	3.1	3
	2.34	3.38	2.84
	2.27	3.3	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.58)	3.35 ↓ (3.74)	2.88 ↓ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newry City
40.5%

Draw
27.5%

Portadown
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.4%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

23.9%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newry City's form might have worsened.

Portadown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portadown's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newry City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portadown than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portadown, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Newry City - Portadown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Newry City is NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)

Portadown is NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newry City won 1.

Newry City is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Portadown is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Portadown could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Newry City will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Newry City won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Newry City won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newry City
Northern Irish Premiership
04.03.23	Newry City - Glenavon	0:1 ✺
25.02.23	Glenavon - Newry City	0:2 ✺
17.02.23	Newry City - Dungannon Swifts	0:2 ✺
14.02.23	Coleraine - Newry City	1:0 ✺
10.02.23	Newry City - Carrick Rangers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWLLL
- Portadown
Northern Irish Premiership
04.03.23	Portadown - Carrick Rangers	1:3 ✺
24.02.23	Portadown - Dungannon Swifts	3:1 ✺
18.02.23	Portadown - Glenavon	3:1 ✺
14.02.23	Cliftonville - Portadown	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Ballymena United - Portadown	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
04.12.22	Newry City - Portadown	1:3
15.10.22	Portadown - Newry City	1:3
Northern Irish Championship
08.11.19	Newry City - Portadown	1:2
04.10.19	Portadown - Newry City	0:0
Northern Irish League Cup
30.10.18	Newry City - Portadown	1:2 penalties
Northern Irish Championship
20.04.18	Newry City - Portadown	0:0
23.03.18	Portadown - Newry City	2:1

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