Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)


	Portimonense		Arouca

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2
	3.73	3.3	2.06
	3.48	3.58	1.99	Watch
	3.22	3.3	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.16)	3.4 ↑ (3.24)	2.06 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense
27.2%

Draw
27.4%

Arouca
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

28.2%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

27.4%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Portimonense - Arouca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Douglas Friedrich (G) 31. Edney 33. Grolli D. 5. Heitor 17. Joao Reis 19. Joao Vitor 73. Junior M. 8. Lobato S. 18. Mamede 9. Monteiro T. 15. Xavier	58. Mantl N. (G) 17. Barbero I. 66. Fayed O. 21. Fukui T. 10. Gozalbez P. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 16. Sola A. 28. Tiago Esgaio 19. Trezza A. 22. van Ee E.
Substitutes
2. Abel A. 90. Canario F. 21. Dauda M. . Dju M. 26. Maycon Cleiton (G) 16. Thauan Lara 23. Ze Gabriel	78. Alex Pinto 44. Dante A. 7. Djouahra N. 77. Jansonas R. 14. Lee H. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 1. Valido J. (G) 30. Vinarcik J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Lobato S. 🟨,
18', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
27', Trezza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', 0 - 1, Puche ⚽,
57', Grolli D. ↓, Canario F. ↑,
57', Joao Vitor ↓, Jarleysom ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Monteiro T. (Pen),
67', Gozalbez P. ↓, Lee H. ↑,
69', 1 - 2, Puche ⚽,
70', Lobato S. ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
76', Puche ↓, Djouahra N. ↑,
78', Edney ↓, Dauda M. ↑,
79', Monteiro T. ↓, Dju M. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portimonense won 0.

Portimonense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arouca could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Portimonense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Portimonense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense SC
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.25	Portimonense - Leiria	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Académico de Viseu - Portimonense	2:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Vitória de Sernache - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.25	Portimonense - Sporting Lisbon B	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Benfica B - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWWLW
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
29.09.25	Arouca - Porto	0:4 ✺
20.09.25	Nacional - Arouca	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:2 ✺
30.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
03.02.24	Portimonense - Arouca	1:2
26.08.23	Arouca - Portimonense	1:1
27.05.23	Portimonense - Arouca	0:2
20.01.23	Arouca - Portimonense	4:0
30.04.22	Arouca - Portimonense	1:0
18.12.21	Portimonense - Arouca	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
28.12.15	Portimonense - Arouca	4:1

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